Jeff Locke (1-0, 3.00 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (3-6) go up against Jimmy Nelson (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (2-7) in the first of a three-game division series at PNC Park. The game gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET on Friday, Apr. 17 and will air on FSN-WI and ROOT-PIT.
Locke is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA, 30 strikeouts and 16 walks against the Brewers in his career. Andrew McCutchen (.207 ) went 1 for 2 Wednesday. In his career against the Pirates, Nelson is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, and nine strikeouts. Adam Lind (.333 ) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Pittsburgh, a -122 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Milwaukee. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is eight runs. The Pirates are 1-3 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -364. They typically aren't overmatched by pitchers, ranking third in the NL with an average of only 5.3 strikeouts per home game. Pittsburgh's pitching staff performs very well on its own field, recording a low 2.33 team ERA at home. The Pirates are fifth in the NL in walks allowed with just 2.7 per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Brewers come into this game with a win percentage of .500 when playing as the underdog (1-1) and an overall money line of -483. Against fellow NL Central members, they are 2-3 SU and 1-1 as the underdog. When it comes to scoring runs, the Brewers have performed much better than normal against teams from the NL Central. During those games, they averaged three runs per game, above their 2.9 season average. Milwaukee's pitching staff tends to perform well when they play division rivals. They've allowed an average of 4.8 runs per game against teams from the NL Central, lower than their season average of 5.5. They also allow just 1.8 walks per game, best in the NL.
In their previous three games this season, the Pirates have a 2-1 record. This game will feature Nelson (RHP) on the mound against the Pirates, who have a 3-6 record when they take on a right-handed starter.
Predictions: SU Winner - PIT, O/U - Over
Both the Pirates and the Brewers are 2-4 against divisional foes.
Neither the Pirates nor the Brewers have won a game in extra innings, both going 0-1 in such matchups.
The Brewers are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Pirates have a 3-5 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Pirates are 3-1. The Brewers have a 1-0 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total runs this season, Pittsburgh ranks 23rd with 29 runs and Milwaukee is 28th with 23.
Pittsburgh and Milwaukee both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Pittsburgh sits at 29th with 14 this season and Milwaukee ranks 26th with 18.
The Pirates are 3-2 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Brewers are 1-2 when they hit at least one homer.