Jimmy Nelson (1-1, 1.50 ERA) and Johnny Cueto (0-2, 2.14 ERA) take the hill in the third of a four-game series between the Milwaukee Brewers (2-12) and the Cincinnati Reds (7-7) at Miller Park. The Brewers lost the last game 16-10, continuing a seven-game losing streak. Action begins at 8:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Apr. 22 and can be seen on FSN-OH and FSN-WI.
Nelson is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA in his appearances against the Reds, and goes up against a below-average Cincinnati offense which is batting just .231 this season. Jean Segura (.308, 7 Rs, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, 2 SBs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 4 with two runs. Cueto is 7-3 with a 3.06 ERA when pitching against the Brewers. He takes on a below-average Milwaukee offense which is hitting just .217 this season. Joey Votto (.377, 12 Rs, 6 HRs, 13 RBIs, 2 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Reds, going 2 for 5 yesterday with three runs, one home run, and one RBI.
Cincinnati takes on Milwaukee as a -128 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at seven runs. The Brewers have recorded an overall money line of -984 and have shown a weak performance as an underdog this season with a record of 1-5. Milwaukee has recorded a disappointing 1-5 record as the underdog over its last 10 games. The Brewers are the top team in the NL at limiting walks during home games, allowing only 1.7 walks per contest to their opponents this season.
As for their opponent, in contrast to a worrisome overall money line (-56), Cincinnati has an impressive 2-1 record when playing as the favorite. They have been on a bit of a dry streak over their last 10 games, recording zero wins when playing as the favorite and with an SU record of 3-7. The Reds are an excellent base-stealing team with an MLB-best 16 stolen bases. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Reds are third in the NL with an average of 7.6 hits allowed per game.
The Reds have the edge in the season series, 2-0. The Brewers have a bad 1-5 record at home (2-8 overall) against right-handed starting pitchers, which is what they'll be facing when Cueto takes the mound. Nelson (RHP) will be on the hill against the Reds, who have a 5-5 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - CIN, O/U - Under
The Reds hold a split 7-7 record against NL Central teams, but the Brewers are 2-9 in such matchups.
Milwaukee has won 20% (1-4) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Cincinnati has won 60% (3-2) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Brewers managed to give up six walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Reds who are coming in with a 1-1 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
The Reds are coming into the game with two consecutive wins, while the Brewers currently have a losing streak of seven.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 4-3. The Brewers have a 1-0 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 27th in runs, Milwaukee has earned 41 this season. Cincinnati ranks 12th with 59 runs.
Ranking 29th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 27 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top half at 11th with 44.
When the Brewers hit at least one home run, they are 1-4. When the Reds hit at least one homer, they have a 6-4 record.