Johnny Cueto (1-2, 1.86 ERA) and Jimmy Nelson (1-1, 1.35 ERA) start in the first of a three-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (8-10) and the Milwaukee Brewers (4-15) at the Great American Ball Park. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Apr. 27 and can be seen on FSN-WI and FSN-OH.
Cueto is 8-3 with a 2.92 ERA in his appearances against the Brewers, and goes up against a below-average Milwaukee offense which is batting just .223 this season. Todd Frazier (.254, 12 Rs, 5 HRs, 14 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI. Nelson is 0-0 with a 2.81 ERA when pitching against the Reds. He takes on a below-average Cincinnati offense which is hitting just .219 this season. Adam Lind (.318, 6 Rs, 3 HRs, 11 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run, one home run, and two RBIs.
Cincinnati is a narrow -113 favorite at home against Milwaukee. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at eight runs for this matchup. Though the Reds have had a tough season in terms of their overall money line (-50), they have done fairly well as a favorite with a record of 3-2. Within its division, Cincinnati has a 3-2 record as favorite and an 8-9 record SU. Cincinnati leads the MLB in steals, swiping 21 bases. Turning to the pitchers, opponents have consistently been struck out by the Reds, who rank fourth in the NL in strikeouts per game with 8.5.
In the other locker room, Milwaukee is coming in with an overall money line of -1,311 and a disappointing record of 1-8 as the underdog. They have been on a bit of a dry streak over their last 10 games. They managed a 0-7 record when playing as the underdog.
The Reds lead the season series, 3-1. The Reds have a 7-6 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Nelson takes the mound. Cueto (RHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a 3-12 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - CIN, O/U - Over
The Brewers are struggling at 4-12 in their division, while the Reds sit at 8-10.
When leading after 7 innings, Cincinnati is 3-4, while Milwaukee is 2-5.
The Reds are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded 10 strikeouts. The Brewers have a record of 0-4 when they are struck out that many times or more.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 2-12. The Reds have a 3-6 record when opponents outhit them.
Milwaukee ranks near the bottom of the league at 29th when it comes to home runs, hitting nine this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 20.
Cincinnati and Milwaukee both rank in the top half of the league in hits. Cincinnati sits at 11th with 7.53 hits per game and Milwaukee ranks 13th with 7.22.
Cincinnati and Milwaukee both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Cincinnati sits at 23rd with an OPS of .639 and Milwaukee ranks 29th with an OPS of .601.
When the Brewers allow at least one home run, they are 2-11. When the Reds allow one or more homers, they have a 6-9 record.