Michael Lorenzen (first start) and the Cincinnati Reds (10-10) go up against Matt Garza (1-3, 5.16 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (4-17) in the last of a three-game division series at the Great American Ball Park. The Reds won the last game 4-2 and Cincinnati leads the series 2-0. The game starts at 12:35 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Apr. 29 and will air on FSN-WI and FSN-OH.
Lorenzen is making his first start of the season against a struggling Milwaukee offense that's hitting just .222 on the year. Joey Votto (.316, 13 Rs, 7 HRs, 16 RBIs, 2 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one home run, and one RBI. In his career against the Reds, Garza is 3-3 with a 4.12 ERA. He gets a less-than-stellar Cincinnati offense that's batting just .223. Adam Lind (.329, 7 Rs, 3 HRs, 12 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Cincinnati is a -156 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. The Reds perform well as a favorite with a 4-2 record, but haven't fared as well with the overall money line (-50). They have a 9-10 record SU and are 4-2 as favorite within their division. The Reds come into the game with the NL's fourth-ranked home scoring offense, averaging 4.2 runs per game in their own ballpark. They have been a terror on the base paths, leading all of baseball with 23 steals.
Moving on to the away team, the Brewers come into this game with a weak win percentage of .182 when playing as the underdog (2-9) and an overall money line of -1,299. They have played poorly as the underdog as of late. They managed a 1-6 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 2-8.
The Reds had the upper hand against the Brewers in their previous six games this season, earning a 5-1 record. This game will feature Garza (RHP) on the mound against the Reds, who have an 8-7 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Leake will take the mound against the Brewers, who have a 4-13 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - CIN, O/U - Over
The Reds are 10-10 against other teams in their division, while the Brewers are 4-14 against their rivals.
When the Reds play into extra innings, they have a 1-3 record. The Brewers are 0-1 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Brewers are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded six strikeouts. The Reds have a record of 5-3 when opponents' pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 2-13. The Reds have a 4-6 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 26th in home runs, Milwaukee has hit 11 this season. Cincinnati ranks sixth with 24 home runs.
Cincinnati and Milwaukee both rank in the top half of the league in hits. Cincinnati sits at 12th with 7.53 hits per game and Milwaukee ranks 11th with 7.55.
Ranking 29th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.604). Cincinnati ranks in the bottom half at 20th with an OPS of .666.
The Brewers are 2-13 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Reds are 7-9 when they allow at least one homer.