In the first of a four-game series between the Atlanta Braves (10-11) and the Cincinnati Reds (10-11) at Turner Field, Shelby Miller (3-0, 2.05 ERA) and Mike Leake (0-1, 3.90 ERA) get the ball. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Apr. 30 and will air on FSN-OH and SPSO.
Miller has a 3.38 ERA and a 2-2 record in his career against the Reds, and is up against a less-than-stellar Cincinnati offense that's hitting just .223 on the year. Nick Markakis (.338, 16 Rs, 5 RBIs, 1 SB) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run. In his career against the Braves, Leake is 3-2 with a 2.43 ERA. He meets a strong Atlanta offense that's batting .256. Todd Frazier (.240, 16 Rs, 6 HRs, 15 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
Atlanta, a -123 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Cincinnati. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is seven runs. The Braves are 3-3 as the favorite and have an overall money line of +164. The Braves are fourth in the NL in hits allowed with just 7.8 per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Reds come into this game with a weak win percentage of .385 when playing as the underdog (5-8) and an overall money line of -67. The Reds have racked up 23 steals on the year, making them one of the most threatening base-running teams in the league.
This game will feature Leake (RHP) on the mound against the Braves, who have an 8-9 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Miller will take the mound against the Reds, who have a 9-8 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - ATL, O/U - Over
Atlanta has won 36% (5-9) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Cincinnati has won 50% (4-4) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Braves managed to give up five walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Reds who are coming in with a 3-1 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Braves are 1-7. The Reds have a 4-7 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 16th in home runs, Atlanta has hit 17 this season. Cincinnati ranks sixth with 27 home runs.
Ranking 12th, Cincinnati is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.50 per game. Atlanta ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 8.50.
Ranking 23rd, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.671). Atlanta ranks in the top half at 13th with an OPS of .713.
When the Reds allow at least one home run, they are 7-10. When the Braves allow one or more homers, they have a 3-7 record.