In the first of a two-game series between the New York Mets (16-10) and the Baltimore Orioles (16-10) at Citi Field, Bartolo Colon (4-1, 3.31 ERA) and Bud Norris (1-2, 12.18 ERA) get the start. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, May. 5 and will air on MASN2 and SNY.
Colon is 12-8 with a 3.25 ERA against the Orioles in his career, but faces a strong Baltimore offense that's hitting .277 on the year. Juan Lagares (.324, 13 Rs, 11 RBIs, 1 SB) continued his strong season Sunday, going 2 for 3. In his pitching opportunities against the Mets, Norris is 1-1 with a 4.68 ERA. He gets a less-than-stellar New York offense that's batting just .236. Adam Jones (.402, 17 Rs, 5 HRs, 21 RBIs) has been hitting the ball well for the Orioles, going 4 for 4 Sunday with two RBIs.
New York is a -138 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is seven runs. The Mets perform well as a favorite with an 11-2 record and have an overall money line of +685. They have a 1-2 record SU against the AL. New York has been struggling as of late. In the last 10 games, New York has only averaged 2.8 runs per game compared to the 3.9 they've averaged on the season. The Mets typically don't swing at bad pitches, which has led to an impressive 3.5 walks per home game. New York's pitchers struggle against teams that play in the American League. The Mets have given up an average of 4.7 runs to opponents from the AL, well over their defense's season average of 3.2. The Mets don't give up many walks to opposing batters, leading the NL with only 2.0 walks allowed per game.
Across the field, the Orioles have a subpar record of 4-6 when they are the underdog, but are +121 overall with the money line. They have played poorly as the underdog as of late. They managed a 1-3 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 5-5. They also average just 7.3 hits allowed per game, third-best in the AL.
The Mets will take on a right-hander (Norris) in this game and have a 13-8 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Orioles will be the right-hander Colon. They sport a 10-9 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner - BAL, O/U - Over
Baltimore has won 50% (4-4) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, New York has won 77% (10-3) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Mets managed to give up six walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Orioles who are coming in with a 2-1 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Orioles have a slight leg up on the Mets, as the Orioles have won their last two games while the Mets have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Orioles are 11-3. The Mets have a 9-1 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 16th, New York is in the bottom half of the league in runs, scoring 101 this season. Baltimore ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 120.
Ranking 23rd, Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 62 this season. New York ranks in the top half at 14th with 79.
The Mets are 9-3 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Orioles are 11-7 when they hit at least one homer.