In the last of a three-game series between the Boston Red Sox (13-14) and the Tampa Bay Rays (13-14) at Fenway Park, Justin Masterson (2-0, 4.71 ERA) and Alex Colome (1-0, 0.00 ERA) take the mound. The Red Sox won the last game 2-0 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, May. 6 and will air on SunSports and NESN.
Masterson is 2-7 with a 6.83 ERA against the Rays in his career, but faces a less-than-stellar Tampa Bay offense that's hitting just .233 on the year. The Rays were victorious over the Orioles 2-0 the last time Colome pitched. He went 5.0 innings, giving up zero runs and striking out six. Logan Forsythe (.303, 8 Rs, 2 HRs, 11 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Boston, a -129 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Tampa Bay. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is eight runs. When playing as the favorite, the Red Sox have an 8-10 record and overall money line at -507. They have disappointing records of 5-8 as the favorite and 8-12 SU within their division. Boston has averaged 4.2 runs per game during divisional play, lower than its season average of 4.7. They have been very patient at the plate, leading the AL with an average of 4.0 walks per game. Turning to the pitching staff, they have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out, averaging 8.2 strikeouts per game.
Switching gears, the Rays come into this game with a win percentage of .562 when playing as the underdog (9-7) and an overall money line of +277. Against divisional rivals, they are 12-11 SU and 7-6 as the underdog. The Rays average 3.4 walks per game, making them one of the most disciplined teams in the AL. Tampa Bay's pitching staff has allowed an average of 2.5 runs per game during the last 10 games, lower than their season average of 3.6. They have a WHIP of 1.11 on the year, good for second in the league.
The Rays are 3-2 against the Red Sox this season. The Red Sox will take on a right-hander (Colome) in this game and have a 10-11 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Rays will be the right-hander Masterson. They sport an 11-8 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner - TB, O/U - Over
This season, the Rays hold an even 12-12 record against AL East teams. The Red Sox sit at 9-12 against these opponents.
Boston has won 42% (5-7) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Tampa Bay has won 50% (5-5) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Red Sox are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded six strikeouts. The Rays have a record of 3-2 when opponents' pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Rays are 1-9. The Red Sox have a 2-14 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 16th in home runs, Tampa Bay has hit 21 this season. Boston ranks eighth with 31 home runs.
Ranking 13th, Tampa Bay is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.77 per game. Boston ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 8.46.
Ranking 23rd, Tampa Bay is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.674). Boston ranks in the top half at 15th with an OPS of .706.
When the Rays allow at least one home run, they are 5-8, well-matched with the Red Sox who are 6-13 when allowing at least one homer.