Max Scherzer (1-3, 1.26 ERA) is on the hill for the Washington Nationals (13-15) as they square off against Tom Koehler (2-2, 4.67 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (13-14) in the last of a three-game series at Nationals Park. The Marlins won the last game 2-1 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 1:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday, May. 6 and can be seen on MASN and MLB Network.
Scherzer pitched 7.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering one run, striking out 10 and walking one in a 4-0 defeat to the Mets. Wilson Ramos (.310, 7 Rs, 1 HR, 11 RBIs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 3. Koehler is 3-3 with a 3.22 ERA when pitching against the Nationals. He is up against a below-average Washington offense which is hitting just .235 this season. Dee Gordon (.422, 16 Rs, 11 RBIs, 12 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday.
This one isn't expected to be close when Washington, a substantial -200 favorite, takes on Miami. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently six runs. The Nationals have an overall money line of -451 and a record as the favorite of 10-10. Within its division, Washington has a 9-9 record as favorite and an 11-10 record SU.
As for their opponent, Miami is coming in with an overall money line of -398 and a disappointing record of 4-6 as the underdog. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 3-1 record, and a 7-3 record SU. The Marlins are tough outs for opponents, ranking third in the NL with 9.0 hits per game. The Marlins allow 3.9 runs per game, but have improved upon those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 2.8 runs per game during that span. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Marlins are fifth in the NL on the road with an average of 7.6 hits allowed per away game.
The Marlins lead the season series, 4-1. The Nationals have a 9-12 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Koehler takes the mound. Scherzer (RHP) will be on the hill against the Marlins, who have an 8-13 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - WSH, O/U - Over
The Nationals and the Marlins both hold an even record against their divisional opponents. The Nationals are 11-11 and the Marlins are 12-12.
Washington and Miami have both won 46% (6-7) of their games when they lead after 7 innings.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Nationals are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Marlins have a 5-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When outhit, the Nationals and the Marlins both have losing records. Washington has a 2-14 record in these situations while Miami is 1-7.
Miami ranks near the bottom of the league at 28th when it comes to home runs, hitting 15 this season. Washington ranks in the bottom half at 16th with 21.
Ranking 10th, Washington is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.11 per game. Miami ranks in the top five at third with 9.04.
Ranking 23rd, Washington is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.670). Miami ranks in the top half at 15th with an OPS of .702.
The Marlins are 7-8 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Nationals are 3-6 when they allow at least one homer.