Runs may be hard to come by in this one as Mike Leake (2-1, 2.47 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (15-16) meet Shelby Miller (4-1, 1.66 ERA) and the Atlanta Braves (14-17) in the first of a three-game series at the Great American Ball Park. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday, May. 11 and will air on SPSO, FSN-OH and ESPN.
Leake is 4-2 with a 2.03 ERA against the Braves in his career, but is up against a strong Atlanta offense that's hitting .258 on the year. Zack Cozart (.324, 16 Rs, 5 HRs, 15 RBIs, 3 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 3 for 4 with two RBIs. In his career against the Reds, Miller is 2-3 with a 3.24 ERA. He meets a less-than-stellar Cincinnati offense that's batting just .239. Freddie Freeman (.328, 23 Rs, 5 HRs, 18 RBIs, 1 SB) has been doing well offensively for the Braves, going 2 for 4 yesterday with two runs.
Cincinnati, a -136 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Atlanta. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at seven runs. The Reds have a winning record of 8-5 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +51. They have been a terror on the base paths, leading all of baseball with 37 steals.
On the other side, the Braves have a record of 9-12 when they are the underdog and are -36 overall with the money line. They have played poorly as the underdog as of late. They managed a 2-5 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 4-6. Opposing pitchers have routinely struggled to strike out the Atlanta batters, who average an NL-low 6.3 strikeouts per game.
This game will feature Miller (RHP) on the mound against the Reds, who have a 12-11 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Leake will take the mound against the Braves, who have a 12-14 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - CIN, O/U - Over
The Braves lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Reds are 5-4. The Braves are 4-7 in close games this season.
The Reds are 1-3 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Braves are 0-1 in such matchups.
The Braves are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Reds have a 4-7 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Braves are 10-5. The Reds have a 10-4 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 18th, Cincinnati is in the bottom half of the league in runs, scoring 127 this season. Atlanta ranks in the top half at 13th with 137.
Ranking 14th, Atlanta is in the top half of the league in walks, notching 99 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 107.
When the Reds hit at least one home run, they are 13-8. When the Braves hit at least one homer, they have a 10-7 record.