Michael Wacha (5-0, 2.09 ERA) starts for the St. Louis Cardinals (23-10) as they square off against Trevor Bauer (2-1, 4.19 ERA) and the Cleveland Indians (12-20) in the last of a three-game series at Progressive Field. The Indians won the last game 2-0 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 12:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, May. 14 and can be seen on FSN-MW and STO.
Bauer pitched 5.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering five runs and striking out five in a 9-3 defeat to the Twins. Jason Kipnis (.311, 19 Rs, 3 HRs, 15 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 2 yesterday with one run. Wacha went 6.0 innings, surrendering two runs (one unearned) and striking out one in an 8-5 win over the Pirates in his most recent start.
St. Louis takes on Cleveland as a -125 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at seven runs. The Indians have recorded an overall money line of -1,233 and have shown a weak performance as an underdog this season with a record of 4-7. Against the NL, they have a 1-1 record SU. The Indians have seen a decline in scoring against teams in the NL, averaging 2.5 runs per game. They average 4.3 runs per game on the season. Cleveland leads the whole AL in walks at home, earning an average of 4.0 per game. Cleveland's pitchers put it all together when National League teams are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game drops to 4.0 against NL teams, compared to its 5.0 season average. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Indians, who rank fourth in the AL in strikeouts per home game with 9.1.
Over in the other dugout, St. Louis is coming in with an overall money line of +1,172 and an impressive record of 18-5 as the favorite. They played solid baseball as the favorite over their last 10 games with a 4-1 record, and a 6-4 record SU. Offensively, they average 4.5 runs per game, which is good for fifth in the NL. The Cardinals are tough outs for opponents, ranking second in the NL with 9.3 hits per game. St. Louis's pitching staff has set the standard for its league, with an NL-low 2.75 ERA. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Cardinals are the best in the NL on the road with an average of 7.5 hits allowed per away game.
The Indians have a 9-11 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Wacha takes the mound. Bauer (RHP) will be on the hill against the Cardinals, who have a very good 19-6 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - STL, O/U - Over
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 9 games.
St. Louis is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games on the road.
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing Cleveland.
St. Louis is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing Cleveland.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland.
When leading after 7 innings, St. Louis is 11-3, while Cleveland is 4-9.
The Indians are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Cardinals have a 1-1 record when opponents give up that many walks.
When they are outhit, the Indians are 2-16. The Cardinals have a 5-4 record when opponents outhit them.
St. Louis ranks near the bottom of the league at 25th when it comes to home runs, hitting 24 this season. Cleveland ranks in the bottom half at 16th with 30.
Ranking ninth, Cleveland is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.44 per game. St. Louis ranks in the top five at second with 9.30.
Ranking 13th, Cleveland is in the top half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.717). St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at 10th with an OPS of .732.
When the Cardinals allow at least one home run, they are 8-6. When the Indians allow one or more homers, they have a 9-15 record.