Mike Pelfrey (3-0, 2.62 ERA) gets the start for the Minnesota Twins (19-15) as they go up against Anibal Sanchez (2-4, 5.44 ERA) and the Detroit Tigers (20-14) in the last of a three-game series at Comerica Park. The Twins won the last game 6-2 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game gets underway at 1:08 p.m. ET on Thursday, May. 14 and will air on FSN-N, FSN-DET and MLB Net.
Sanchez has a 2.47 ERA and a 3-3 record in his career against the Twins, but is up against a strong Minnesota offense that's hitting .261 on the year. Miguel Cabrera (.317, 17 Rs, 6 HRs, 21 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run. In his pitching opportunities against the Tigers, Pelfrey is 3-3 with a 3.98 ERA. He gets a solid Detroit offense that's batting .270. Brian Dozier (.256, 25 Rs, 4 HRs, 16 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been hitting the ball well, going 3 for 5 yesterday.
Detroit, a -166 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Minnesota. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is eight runs. The Tigers perform well as a favorite with a 14-9 record and have an overall money line of +396. They have impressive records of 13-6 as the favorite and 17-10 SU within their division. Within their division, Detroit's offense has been playing lights out, averaging 4.7 runs per game, well over their season average of 4.2. The Tigers are a superb hitting team with 9.1 hits per game, one of the highest marks in the AL. They have been a terror on the base paths, ranking fourth in all of baseball with 29 steals. As for the pitching staff, the Tigers are second in the AL in walks allowed with just 2.5 per game.
On the other side, the Twins have a record of 15-13 when they are the underdog and are +807 overall with the money line. Against divisional foes, they are 14-13 SU and 12-11 as the underdog. Minnesota has been playing better lately, averaging 6.6 runs per game, more than their season average of 4.7.
The Tigers have gotten the best of the Twins in head-to-head matchups this season, going 6-2. This game will feature Pelfrey (RHP) on the mound against the Tigers, who have a 14-11 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Twins will be the right-hander Sanchez. They sport an 8-10 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner - DET, O/U - Over
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games.
Minnesota is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games.
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Detroit.
Minnesota is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Detroit.
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit.
Minnesota has won 38% (3-5) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Detroit has won 69% (9-4) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Tigers are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded six strikeouts. The Twins have a record of 9-3 when opponents' pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Tigers are 1-10. The Twins have a 3-14 record when opponents outhit them.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total home runs this season, Detroit ranks 21st with 26 homers and Minnesota is 23rd with 25.
Detroit and Minnesota both rank in the top five of the league in hits. Detroit sits at third with 9.12 hits per game and Minnesota ranks fourth with 8.94.
Ranking 19th, Minnesota is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.703). Detroit ranks in the top 10 at sixth with an OPS of .744.
The Twins are 9-12 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Tigers are 6-9 when they allow at least one homer.