Mat Latos (1-3, 4.72 ERA) and Alex Wood (1-2, 4.28 ERA) start in the second of a three-game series between the Miami Marlins (16-20) and the Atlanta Braves (16-19) at Marlins Park. The Braves won the last game 5-3 and Atlanta leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 1:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, May. 16 and can be seen on FS1.
Latos is 3-5 with a 4.56 ERA in his appearances against the Braves, and goes up against a quality Atlanta offense which is batting .257 this season. Dee Gordon (.433, 21 Rs, 12 RBIs, 12 SBs) had another good game yesterday, going 3 for 5 with one run. Wood is 3-3 with a 3.74 ERA against the Marlins in his career. He takes on a good Miami offense that's batting .268. Freddie Freeman (.319, 24 Rs, 5 HRs, 18 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 5 yesterday.
Miami is a -146 favorite against Atlanta and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Marlins have an overall money line of -321 and a record as the favorite of 8-8. Within its division, Miami has a 7-6 record as favorite and a 12-13 record SU. Miami's pitchers put it all together when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game drops to 3.6 against fellow NL East members, compared to its 4.1 season average. The Marlins are the second-best team in the NL at limiting hits during home games, allowing only 7.7 hits per game to their opponents this season.
In the other locker room, Atlanta is coming in with an overall money line of -210 and a disappointing record of 10-15 as the underdog. They played poorly as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 2-5 record, and a 4-6 record SU. Atlanta is excellent at not striking out with an NL-low 6.2 per game.
The Braves have controlled the season series, 5-2. The Marlins have a 5-1 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Wood takes the mound. Latos (RHP) will be on the hill against the Braves, who have a 13-17 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - MIA, O/U - Over
The Marlins are 12-14 against their divisional rivals, while the Braves are 11-14 against their division.
Atlanta has won 32% (7-15) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Miami has won 41% (7-10) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Marlins are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Braves have a 2-1 record when opponents give up that many walks.
When they are outhit, the Braves are 2-13. The Marlins have a 2-11 record when opponents outhit them.
Miami and Atlanta both rank near the bottom of the league in home runs. Miami sits at 27th with 23 home runs this season and Atlanta ranks 24th with 25.
Ranking 10th, Atlanta is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.35 per game. Miami ranks in the top five at fourth with 9.00.
Miami and Atlanta both rank in the bottom half of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Miami sits at 19th with an OPS of .706 and Atlanta ranks 18th with an OPS of .707.
When the Braves allow at least one home run, they are 5-13, well-matched with the Marlins who are 8-12 when allowing at least one homer.