Felix Hernandez (6-0, 1.85 ERA) gets the start for the Seattle Mariners (16-19) as they meet Rick Porcello (3-2, 4.50 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (17-19) in the third of a four-game series at Safeco Field. The Mariners won the last game 2-1 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game starts at 9:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, May. 16 and will air on NESN, ROOT-NW and MLB Net.
Hernandez is 8-2 with a 3.06 ERA against the Red Sox in his career, and faces a less-than-stellar Boston offense that's hitting just .232 on the year. Nelson Cruz (.358, 24 Rs, 15 HRs, 30 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI. In his career against the Mariners, Porcello is 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 42 strikeouts.
Seattle is a heavy -180 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at six runs. The Mariners are 12-13 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -789. Seattle's pitching staff performs very well on its own field, with an AL-best 2.82 team ERA at home.
Across the field, the Red Sox have a record of 8-7 when they are the underdog and are -393 overall with the money line. The Red Sox will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent offensive struggles. In their 10 most recent games, Boston's run production has dropped to 2.4 runs per game, compared to 3.9 for the duration of the season. Boston has an eye for the strike zone, averaging an AL-best 3.8 walks per game.
The Mariners will take on a right-hander (Porcello) in this game and have a 12-14 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Hernandez will take the mound against the Red Sox, who have a 12-14 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - SEA, O/U - Over
The Red Sox lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Mariners are 9-8. The Red Sox are 7-4 in close games this season.
The Red Sox are 2-1 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Mariners are 3-3 in such matchups.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Red Sox are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Mariners have a 6-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Mariners are 7-7. The Red Sox have a 13-1 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 24th, Seattle is near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 133 this season. Boston ranks in the bottom half at 18th with 147.
Ranking 21st, Seattle is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 91 this season. Boston ranks in the top five at second with 133.
The Mariners are 13-10 when they hit at least one home run. The Red Sox perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 12-11 record.