Shelby Miller (4-1, 1.60 ERA) gets the start for the Atlanta Braves (17-19) as they meet Tom Koehler (2-3, 4.29 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (16-21) in the last of a three-game series at Marlins Park. The Braves won the last game 5-3 and Atlanta leads the series 2-0. The game gets underway at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, May. 17 and will air on FSN-S and FSN-FL.
Koehler has a 2.98 ERA and a 1-3 record in his career against the Braves, but is up against a solid Atlanta offense that's hitting .259 on the year. Dee Gordon (.425, 21 Rs, 14 RBIs, 12 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with two RBIs. In his pitching opportunities against the Marlins, Miller is 1-1 with a 3.98 ERA. He meets a strong Miami offense that's batting .269. Freddie Freeman (.317, 24 Rs, 5 HRs, 18 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Miami is a -137 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. When playing as the favorite, the Marlins have an 8-9 record and overall money line at -454. They have struggled as the favorite over their last 10 games, going 0-1. Miami's pitchers are doing better against opposing batters during divisional games, only allowing an average of 3.7 runs per game, well under their season average of 4.1. The Marlins are third in the NL in hits allowed at home with just 8.1 per game.
On the other side, the Braves have a record of 11-15 when they are the underdog and are -87 overall with the money line. They have played poorly as the underdog as of late. They managed a 2-5 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 4-6. Opposing pitchers have routinely struggled to strike out the Atlanta batters, who average an NL-low 6.3 strikeouts per game.
The Braves have gotten the best of the Marlins in head-to-head matchups this season, going 6-2. The Marlins will take on a right-hander (Miller) in this game. They have struggled against right-handed starting pitchers this season, going 11-19. Taking the hill against the Braves will be the right-hander Koehler. They sport a 14-17 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner - MIA, O/U - Over
The Marlins are 12-15 against their divisional rivals, while the Braves are 12-14 against their division.
Atlanta has won 32% (7-15) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Miami has won 41% (7-10) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Marlins are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Braves have a 3-1 record when opponents give up that many walks.
It looks like the Braves have a slight leg up on the Marlins, as the Braves have won their last two games while the Marlins have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 14-7. The Braves have a 13-6 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 16th, Miami is in the bottom half of the league in runs, scoring 151 this season. Atlanta ranks in the top half at 14th with 153.
Miami and Atlanta both rank in the bottom half of the league in walks. Miami sits at 20th with 98 this season and Atlanta ranks 16th with 110.
When the Marlins hit at least one home run, they are 7-11. When the Braves hit at least one homer, they have a 12-7 record.