Runs may be hard to come by in this one as Lance Lynn (2-3, 3.27 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals (24-12) go up against Alfredo Simon (4-1, 3.05 ERA) and the Detroit Tigers (23-14) in the last of a three-game series at Busch Stadium. The Tigers won the last game 4-3 and Detroit leads the series 2-0. The game starts at 8:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, May. 17 and will air on ESPN.
In his most recent outing, Lynn pitched 6.0 innings, giving up zero runs, striking out nine and walking four in an 8-3 victory over the Indians. Matt Carpenter (.323, 28 Rs, 7 HRs, 24 RBIs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI. In his pitching opportunities against the Cardinals, Simon is 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA. He gets a strong St. Louis offense that's batting .267. Miguel Cabrera (.333, 23 Rs, 10 HRs, 29 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
St. Louis is a -134 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. The Cardinals have a winning record of 19-6 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +1,130. They have a 1-1 record when they were the favorite and 2-2 SU against the AL. The Cardinals seem to play worse on offense against American League opponents. In those matchups, St. Louis has only averaged 3.5 runs per game compared to its 4.5 season average. Don't expect the St. Louis hitters to swing wildly in their own ballpark. They average only 6.4 strikeouts per home game. St. Louis's pitching staff will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent struggles. The Cardinals have given up an average of 4.3 runs to opponents in their last 10 games, above their season average of 3.2 runs per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Tigers come into this game with a win percentage of .583 when playing as the underdog (7-5) and an overall money line of +628. Interleague competitors haven't been able to get the upper hand on fiery Detroit. The Tigers hold a record of 3-1 in games where they were ranked as the underdog and a 3-1 SU. Detroit is one of the top road hitting teams in the AL with an average of 9.8 hits per contest. Detroit is a terror on the base paths, ranking fourth in the MLB with 31 stolen bases. Detroit's pitching staff tends to perform well when they play competition from the NL. They've allowed an average of 2.2 runs per game against teams from the NL, lower than their season average of 4.0.
The previous two games have all gone Detroit's way. This game will feature Simon (RHP) on the mound against the Cardinals, who have a 12-2 home and 20-7 overall record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Lynn will take the mound against the Tigers, who have a 16-11 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - DET, O/U - Over
The Tigers won their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Cardinals are 6-6. The Tigers are 8-5 in close games this season.
The Cardinals managed to give up four walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Tigers who are coming in with an 11-5 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Tigers have a slight leg up on the Cardinals, as the Tigers have won their last three games while the Cardinals have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Cardinals are 15-6. The Tigers have a 20-2 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 11th in runs, St. Louis has earned 159 this season. Detroit ranks sixth with 169 runs.
Ranking 13th, St. Louis is in the top half of the league in walks, notching 115 this season. Detroit ranks in the top five at third with 130.
The Cardinals are 14-6 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Tigers are 16-5 when they hit at least one homer.