James Paxton (1-2, 4.31 ERA) and Justin Masterson (2-2, 6.37 ERA) take the hill in the last of a four-game series between the Seattle Mariners (16-20) and the Boston Red Sox (18-19) at Safeco Field. The Red Sox won the last game 4-2 and Boston leads the series 2-1. Action begins at 4:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, May. 17 and can be seen on NESN and ROOT-NW.
Paxton pitched 6.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering zero runs, striking out five and walking five in an 11-4 win over the Padres. Brad Miller (.264, 10 Rs, 4 HRs, 13 RBIs, 3 SBs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 3 with two runs, two home runs, and two RBIs. Masterson is 4-0 with a 3.14 ERA when pitching against the Mariners. He is up against a below-average Seattle offense which is hitting just .238 this season. Hanley Ramirez (.272, 20 Rs, 10 HRs, 22 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 5 yesterday.
Seattle is a -146 favorite against Boston and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Mariners have an overall money line of -689 and a record as the favorite of 13-13. Seattle is an impressive 5-2 as the favorite over its last 10 games. Opposing offenses that come to Safeco Field have been stifled by the Mariners, who have a team ERA of only 2.73 at home.
In games where it is the underdog, Boston has a 8-8 record and an overall money line of -494. Offensively, the Red Sox have really sputtered in the last 10 games. They have decreased their season average of 4.1 runs per game by averaging 2.4 during that stretch. Boston is excellent at drawing walks with an AL-best 3.7 per game. The Red Sox have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an AL-best 7.4 strikeouts per road game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Red Sox lead the season series, 2-1. The Mariners have a 13-14 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Masterson takes the mound. Paxton (LHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have a 5-5 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - SEA, O/U - Over
Boston has won 44% (7-9) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Seattle has won 70% (7-3) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Mariners managed to give up five walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Red Sox who are coming in with a 9-4 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 4-18. The Mariners have a 7-12 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking ninth in home runs, Boston has hit 38 this season. Seattle ranks third with 46 home runs.
Ranking 11th, Boston is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.94 per game. Seattle ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 8.09.
Seattle and Boston both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Seattle sits at 21st with an OPS of .701 and Boston ranks 25th with an OPS of .677.
When the Red Sox allow at least one home run, they are 7-18, well-matched with the Mariners who are 7-16 when allowing at least one homer.