Mat Latos (1-4, 5.54 ERA) and Archie Bradley (2-1, 3.27 ERA) are on the hill in the last of a four-game series between the Miami Marlins (16-25) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (18-21) at Marlins Park. The Marlins lost the last game 6-1, continuing a six-game losing streak. Arizona can finish out the series sweep with a win in this game. Action begins at 12:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, May. 21 and can be seen on FSN-AZ and MLB Network.
Latos is 4-1 with a 2.61 ERA in his appearances against the Diamondbacks, but goes up against a quality Arizona offense which is batting .267 this season. Bradley went 2.0 innings, surrendering four runs, striking out one and walking three in a 7-5 defeat to the Phillies in his last outing. Yasmany Tomas (.346, 9 Rs, 1 HR, 11 RBIs, 2 SBs) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 5 yesterday.
Miami is a -138 favorite against Arizona and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Marlins have recorded an overall money line of -954 and have shown a weak performance as a favorite this season with a record of 8-13. Miami has gone winless in its last 10 as the favorite. The Marlins have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 2.7 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 3.9 runs per game. As for the pitchers, the Marlins are the fifth-best team in the NL at limiting walks during home games, allowing only 2.5 walks per game to their opponents this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Arizona has a 11-14 record and an overall money line of -244. The Diamondbacks are tough outs for opponents, leading the NL with 9.4 hits per game. The Diamondbacks are an excellent base stealing team with 35 stolen bases, ranking fifth in the MLB. When it comes to issuing walks on the road, the Diamondbacks have the third-fewest in the NL with an average of just 2.6 walks allowed per game.
The Diamondbacks have the edge in the season series, 3-0. The Marlins have a bad 11-22 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Bradley takes the mound. Latos (RHP) will be on the hill against the Diamondbacks, who have a 13-16 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - ARI, O/U - Over
Miami has won 37% (7-12) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Arizona has won 71% (10-4) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Marlins are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Diamondbacks have an 8-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
The Diamondbacks are coming into the game with three consecutive wins, while the Marlins currently have a losing streak of six.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 14-7. The Diamondbacks have a 13-4 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 19th, Miami is in the bottom half of the league in runs, scoring 156 this season. Arizona ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 182.
Miami and Arizona both rank in the bottom half of the league in walks. Miami sits at 19th with 105 this season and Arizona ranks 18th with 110.
When the Marlins hit at least one home run, they are 7-13. When the Diamondbacks hit at least one homer, they have a 14-6 record.