Julio Teheran (3-1, 4.33 ERA) and Matt Garza (2-5, 5.72 ERA) are on the hill in the first of a four-game series between the Atlanta Braves (19-20) and the Milwaukee Brewers (15-26) at Turner Field. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, May. 21 and can be seen on FSN-WI and SPSO.
Teheran is 1-2 with a 1.69 ERA in his appearances against the Brewers, and goes up against a below-average Milwaukee offense which is batting just .229 this season. Freddie Freeman (.303, 25 Rs, 5 HRs, 19 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run. Garza is 0-3 with a 4.76 ERA when pitching against the Braves. He takes on a good Atlanta offense which is hitting .255 this season. Ryan Braun (.263, 24 Rs, 10 HRs, 28 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 2 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
Atlanta is a -132 favorite against Milwaukee and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Braves have an overall money line of +30 and a record as the favorite of 5-5. Atlanta has gone winless in its last 10 as the favorite. Atlanta strikes out the least of any team in the NL, with only 6.3 per game. Crossing over to the pitching staff, the Braves are the fourth-best team in the NL at limiting hits to their opponents, allowing only 8.4 hits per game so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Milwaukee has a 11-15 record and an overall money line of -889. Offensively, the Brewers have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 3.8 runs per game by averaging 4.9 during that stretch.
The Braves have a 16-18 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Garza takes the mound. Teheran (RHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a 12-19 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - ATL, O/U - Over
When leading after 7 innings, Milwaukee is 6-10, while Atlanta is 7-15.
The Braves are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded 10 strikeouts. The Brewers have a record of 2-8 when they are struck out that many times or more.
When they are outhit, the Braves are 3-14. The Brewers have a 5-21 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 27th in home runs, Atlanta has hit 26 this season. Milwaukee ranks ninth with 42 home runs.
Ranking 15th, Milwaukee is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.63 per game. Atlanta ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 8.53.
Ranking 25th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.672). Atlanta ranks in the bottom half at 19th with an OPS of .698.
When the Brewers allow at least one home run, they are 9-20, well-matched with the Braves who are 6-14 when allowing at least one homer.