Trevor Bauer (3-1, 3.31 ERA) and the Cleveland Indians (19-23) take on Raisel Iglesias (1-0, 3.94 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (18-24) in a game that has the potential to be low scoring. This is the last of a three-game series at Progressive Field. The Indians won the last game 2-1, continuing a five-game winning streak. Action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, May. 24 and can be seen on FSN-OH and STO.
Bauer pitched 7.1 innings in his last outing, surrendering one run, striking out seven and walking three in a 3-1 win over the White Sox. Jason Kipnis (.341, 31 Rs, 4 HRs, 20 RBIs, 5 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run and one RBI. Iglesias will make the start after Johnny Cueto was scratched with stiffness. Joey Votto (.289, 18 Rs, 7 HRs, 21 RBIs, 5 SBs) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 4 yesterday.
This one isn't expected to be close when Cleveland, a substantial -180 favorite, takes on Cincinnati. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of seven runs. The Indians have an overall money line of -868 and a record as the favorite of 11-14. Cleveland is an impressive 4-1 as the favorite over its last 10 games. The Indians have seen a decline in scoring against teams in the NL, averaging 3.2 runs per game. They average 4.4 runs per game on the season. Cleveland leads the whole AL in walks, earning an average of 3.8 per game. Cleveland's pitching staff has been doing better against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, only allowing an average of 2.9 runs per game, well under their season average of 4.6. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Indians, who lead the AL in strikeouts per game with 9.7.
In the other locker room, Cincinnati is coming in with an overall money line of -497 and a disappointing record of 8-16 as the underdog. They have been on a bit of a dry streak over their last 10 games. They managed a 0-5 record when playing as the underdog. Offensively, the Reds have really sputtered in interleague games. They have decreased their season average of 3.8 runs per game by averaging 3.2 in those contests. The Reds are an excellent base-stealing team with an MLB-best 44 stolen bases. The Reds allow 4.6 runs per game, but does worse whenever an AL opponent is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average up to 5.5 against teams from the AL.
The Indians have the edge in the season series, 2-0. The Indians have an 11-13 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Cueto takes the mound. Bauer (RHP) will be on the hill against the Reds, who have a 14-17 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - CLE, O/U - Over
The Reds lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Indians are 2-4. The Reds are 7-7 in close games this season.
When the Reds play into extra innings, they have a 1-3 record. The Indians are 0-2 when their games exceed nine innings.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Reds are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Indians have a 6-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Indians are 3-18. The Reds have a 5-18 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 16th in home runs, Cleveland has hit 37 this season. Cincinnati ranks sixth with 48 home runs.
Ranking 13th, Cincinnati is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.90 per game. Cleveland ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 8.56.
Ranking 19th, Cincinnati is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.697). Cleveland ranks in the top half at 11th with an OPS of .725.
The Reds are 10-18 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Indians are 13-17 when they allow at least one homer.