Tom Koehler (2-3, 3.70 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (17-27) go up against Miguel Gonzalez (5-2, 3.24 ERA) and the Baltimore Orioles (19-21) in the last of a three-game interleague series at Marlins Park. The Marlins won the last game 1-0 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game gets underway at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, May. 24 and will air on MASN2 and FSN-FL.
In his last start, Koehler pitched 6.2 innings, giving up zero runs (two unearned), striking out three and walking two in a 4-2 loss to the Diamondbacks. Dee Gordon (.379, 24 Rs, 14 RBIs, 17 SBs) went 1 for 6 yesterday with one stolen base. The Orioles were victorious the last time Gonzalez pitched. He struggled, going, going 7.0 innings, allowing four runs, striking out eight and walking two in a 9-4 victory over the Mariners. Jimmy Paredes (.352, 19 Rs, 6 HRs, 24 RBIs, 1 SB) has been doing well offensively for the Orioles, going 2 for 6 yesterday.
Miami is a slight -115 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. The Marlins perform poorly as a favorite with an 8-16 record and have an overall money line of -1,322. They have struggled as the favorite over their last 10 games, going 0-8. Miami has averaged 2.8 runs per game over the last 10 games, lower than its season average of 3.9. Below average play has been the norm lately for the Miami pitchers. The Marlins have given up an average of 5.9 runs to opponents in their last 10 games, above their season average of 4.3 runs per game. The Marlins don't give up many walks to opposing batters, ranking fifth in the NL with only 2.8 walks allowed per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Orioles come into this game with a weak win percentage of .389 when playing as the underdog (7-11) and an overall money line of -171. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 6-4 SU and have an unblemished 2-0 record when they were an underdog to win. Against the NL, Baltimore's offense has been struggling more than normal. Baltimore has averaged 3.7 runs per game, less than their 4.6 season average.
This game will feature Gonzalez (RHP) on the mound against the Marlins, who have an 11-25 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Orioles will be the right-hander Koehler. They sport a 16-16 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner - BAL, O/U - Over
The Orioles lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Marlins are 7-7. The Orioles are 4-7 in close games this season.
When leading after 7 innings, Baltimore is 7-8, while Miami is 7-12.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Marlins are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Orioles have a 5-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Orioles are 2-12. The Marlins have a 3-16 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 27th in home runs, Miami has hit 27 this season. Baltimore ranks eighth with 46 home runs.
Miami and Baltimore both rank in the top five of the league in hits. Miami sits at fifth with 8.86 hits per game and Baltimore ranks fourth with 8.72.
Ranking 24th, Miami is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.675). Baltimore ranks in the top 10 at eighth with an OPS of .734.
The Orioles are 9-15 when they allow at least one home run. The Marlins perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with an 8-14 record.