In a game that has the potential for a lot of runs, Rick Porcello (4-3, 5.07 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (21-25) are in Minnesota to take on Phil Hughes (3-4, 4.50 ERA) and the Twins (27-18). This is the last of a three-game series at Target Field. The Twins won the last game 2-1 and Minnesota leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, May. 27 and can be seen on NESN.
Hughes is 5-8 with a 5.12 ERA in his appearances against the Red Sox, but goes up against a below-average Boston offense which is batting just .240 this season. Brian Dozier (.251, 36 Rs, 9 HRs, 24 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run. Porcello is 8-7 with a 3.91 ERA against the Twins in his career. He takes on a quality Minnesota offense that's batting .257. Pablo Sandoval (.265, 17 Rs, 5 HRs, 17 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Minnesota is a slim -106 favorite at home against Boston. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently eight runs. The Twins have recorded an overall money line of +1,380 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 6-2. Minnesota is unbeaten as the favorite and has a 7-3 SU record in its last ten outings. The Twins have no trouble scoring as they rank third in the AL in offense with 4.6 runs per game. The Twins are one of the best in the AL in terms of hits with an impressive 8.8 per game.
In games where it is the underdog, Boston has a 9-9 record and an overall money line of -705. Boston is excellent at not striking out with just 6.6 per game, ranking second in the AL.
The Twins have the edge in the season series, 2-0. The Twins have an 11-13 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Porcello takes the mound. Hughes (RHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have a 14-17 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - MIN, O/U - Over
In their last game, the Red Sox lost by a margin of one run. The Twins are 9-6 in one-run games. The Red Sox have an 8-6 record in close games.
The Twins are 3-1 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 2-1 in such matchups.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Red Sox are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Twins have a 7-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 4-22. The Twins have a 5-17 record when opponents outhit them.
Minnesota ranks near the bottom of the league at 24th when it comes to home runs, hitting 35 this season. Boston ranks in the top half at 12th with 45.
Ranking 11th, Boston is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.22 per game. Minnesota ranks in the top five at fourth with 8.80.
Ranking 23rd, Boston is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.685). Minnesota ranks in the bottom half at 19th with an OPS of .698.
When the Red Sox allow at least one home run, they are 8-23. When the Twins allow one or more homers, they have a 14-13 record.