Mike Pelfrey (4-2, 2.59 ERA) gets the start for the Minnesota Twins (32-23) as they go up against Mike Fiers (2-5, 4.06 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (20-36) in the last of a three-game series at Target Field. The Brewers won the last game 4-2 and Milwaukee leads the series 2-0. The game starts at 2:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jun. 7 and will air on FSN-WI and FSN-N.
Pelfrey is 1-2 with a 3.48 ERA against the Brewers in his career, and faces a struggling Milwaukee offense that's hitting just .233 on the year. Brian Dozier (.266, 47 Rs, 11 HRs, 28 RBIs, 3 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4 with two runs, one home run, and one RBI. In his pitching opportunities against the Twins, Fiers is 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA, nine strikeouts and four walks. Ryan Braun (.263, 31 Rs, 13 HRs, 39 RBIs, 6 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Brewers, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
Minnesota is favored by a small -108 margin in its matchup against Milwaukee. The matchup currently has an eight-run Over/Under (O/U). The Twins have a winning record of 6-4 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +1,680. They have a winless record (0-2) in games played as the favorite during their last 10 games. The Twins have one of the most prolific offenses in the entire AL, averaging 4.5 runs per game. Whenever an National League opponent shows up on the calendar, the Twins seem to struggle with pitching. They allow an average of 4.2 runs per game, but allow 6.0 against teams from the NL. The Twins don't give up many walks to opposing batters, leading the AL with only 2.3 walks allowed per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Brewers come into this game with a weak win percentage of .389 when playing as the underdog (14-22) and an overall money line of -1,640. Against interleague competitors, they are 4-3 SU and have played well as the underdog with a 3-2 record. Milwaukee has stepped up their play against AL opponents averaging an impressive 5.3 runs per game compared to their 3.8 runs per game season average. Playing competition from the AL really brings the best out of the Milwaukee pitchers. They allow 4.0 runs per game against teams in the AL, which is lower than their season average of 4.9.
So far this season, the Brewers are 2-0 against the Twins. This game will feature Fiers (RHP) on the mound against the Twins, who have a 17-15 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Brewers will be the right-hander Pelfrey. Right-handed starters have been a big issue for them as they sport a 14-29 record.
Predictions: SU Winner - MIN, O/U - Over
Milwaukee has won 36% (8-14) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Minnesota has won 50% (9-9) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Twins managed to give up four walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Brewers who are coming in with a 6-6 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Brewers have a slight leg up on the Twins, as the Brewers have won their last two games while the Twins have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Brewers are 13-4. The Twins have a 21-0 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 23rd, Milwaukee sits near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 212 this season. Minnesota ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 245.
Minnesota and Milwaukee both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Minnesota sits at 25th with 130 this season and Milwaukee ranks 23rd with 132.
When the Twins hit at least one home run, they are 25-7. When the Brewers hit at least one homer, they have an 18-14 record.