Joe Kelly (2-4, 5.40 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (27-34) go up against Drew Hutchison (5-1, 4.91 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (31-30) in the first of a three-game division series at Fenway Park. The Blue Jays go into this series looking to continue an eight-game winning streak. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Jun. 12 and will air on RSN and NESN.
Kelly is 0-1 with a 6.62 ERA against the Blue Jays in his career, and is up against a strong Toronto offense that's hitting .266 on the year. Dustin Pedroia (.310, 29 Rs, 8 HRs, 23 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run. In his pitching opportunities against the Red Sox, Hutchison is 3-1 with a 5.34 ERA, 23 strikeouts and 11 walks. Josh Donaldson (.317, 50 Rs, 17 HRs, 44 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Blue Jays, going 2 for 4 Wednesday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
Boston is a -119 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at nine runs. When playing as the favorite, the Red Sox have an 18-22 record and overall money line at -1,234. They have not performed well against their division, earning an SU record of 10-17 and a 6-10 record when they were the favorite. They typically aren't overmatched by pitchers, ranking second in the AL with an average of only 6.4 strikeouts per game. Over their past 10 games, Boston's pitchers have been playing lights out, only allowing 3.1 runs per game, below their season average of 4.5.
Switching gears, the Blue Jays come into this game with a weak win percentage of .379 when playing as the underdog (11-18) and an overall money line of -81. Against divisional rivals, they are 14-14 SU and 6-10 as the underdog. They sport the top-ranked offense in the AL, averaging 5.3 runs per game. One of the top hitting teams in the AL are the Blue Jays, who average 8.9 hits per game. The Blue Jays average 3.2 walks per game, making them one of the most disciplined teams in the AL. Toronto's pitching staff has allowed an average of 2.9 runs per game during the last 10 games, lower than their season average of 4.4.
The Red Sox will take on a right-hander (Hutchison) in this game and have a 19-23 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Blue Jays will be the right-hander Kelly. They sport a 22-26 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner - TOR, O/U - Over
The Blue Jays hold a split 14-14 record against AL East teams, but the Red Sox are 10-18 in such matchups.
When the Red Sox play into extra innings, they have a 2-1 record. The Blue Jays are 1-1 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Blue Jays are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Red Sox have a 1-3 record when opponents give up that many walks.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 4-28. The Blue Jays have a 4-22 record when opponents outhit them.
Boston ranks in the top half of the league at 15th when it comes to home runs, hitting 55 this season. Toronto ranks in the top five at fourth with 75.
Ranking 10th, Boston is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.33 per game. Toronto ranks in the top five at third with 8.89.
Toronto tops the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage of .778 this season. Boston ranks in the bottom half at 20th with an OPS of .688.
The Blue Jays are 19-23 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Red Sox are 11-27 when they allow at least one homer.