Runs may be hard to come by in this one as Jacob deGrom (7-4, 2.42 ERA) and the New York Mets (33-29) meet Shelby Miller (5-2, 1.84 ERA) and the Atlanta Braves (29-32) in the second of a three-game series at Citi Field. The Mets won the last game 5-3 and New York leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 4:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jun. 13 and will air on SPSO and PIX11.
deGrom is 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA against the Braves in his career, but is up against a strong Atlanta offense that's hitting .258 on the year. Wilmer Flores (.249, 28 Rs, 10 HRs, 28 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and one RBI. In his pitching opportunities against the Mets, Miller is 0-1 with a 2.63 ERA, 20 strikeouts and one walk. Freddie Freeman (.306, 39 Rs, 11 HRs, 37 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 2 yesterday.
New York, a -135 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Atlanta. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is six runs. The Mets perform well as a favorite with a 26-8 record and have an overall money line of +179. They have performed well against their division to earn an SU record of 21-11 and a 17-5 record when they were the favorite. Whenever an NL East opponent shows up on the calendar, the Mets pitch better. They allow an average of 3.8 runs per game, but allow just 3.2 against teams from their own division. The Mets are second in the league in WHIP at 1.18.
Across the field, the Braves have a record of 20-25 when they are the underdog and are +246 overall with the money line. Against divisional opponents, they are 13-14 SU and 8-10 as the underdog. The Braves average just 6.8 strikeouts per game, good for least in the NL.
The Mets have gotten the best of the Braves in head-to-head matchups this season, going 5-2. The Mets will take on a right-hander (Miller) in this game and have a 28-23 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Braves will be the right-hander deGrom. They sport a 25-27 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner - NYM, O/U - Over
The Mets hold a 22-11 record in matchups against NL East rivals, while the Braves currently sit at 13-15 in these games.
The Mets are 2-0 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Braves are 1-3 in such matchups.
The Braves managed to give up four walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Mets who are heading in with a 15-4 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Braves are 5-20. The Mets have a 10-23 record when opponents outhit them.
Atlanta ranks near the bottom of the league at 29th when it comes to home runs, hitting 39 this season. New York ranks in the bottom half at 17th with 54.
Ranking 14th, New York is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.95 per game. Atlanta ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 8.68.
Ranking 25th, New York is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.680). Atlanta ranks in the bottom half at 18th with an OPS of .696.
The Braves are 10-23 when they allow at least one home run. The Mets perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 13-21 record.