Jimmy Nelson (3-6, 4.05 ERA) and Joe Ross (0-1, 5.40 ERA) are on the hill in the third of a four-game series between the Milwaukee Brewers (24-38) and the Washington Nationals (31-30) at Miller Park. The Brewers won the last game 8-4 and Milwaukee leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 4:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jun. 13 and can be seen on MASN and FSN-WI.
Nelson pitched 6.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering zero runs, striking out seven and walking three in a 2-0 win over the Pirates. Ryan Braun (.271, 35 Rs, 13 HRs, 41 RBIs, 6 SBs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 5 with two runs. Ross went 5.0 innings, surrendering three runs and striking out four in a 4-2 defeat to the Cubs in his most recent start. Bryce Harper (.333, 47 Rs, 21 HRs, 49 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Nationals, going 2 for 3 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and two RBIs.
Milwaukee is a -130 favorite against Washington and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Brewers have recorded an overall money line of -1,359 and have shown a weak performance as a favorite this season with a record of 6-15. Milwaukee's pitching staff has been doing better against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, only allowing an average of 2.5 runs per game, well under their season average of 4.6. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Brewers, who rank fourth in the NL in strikeouts per game with 8.3.
Over in the other dugout, Washington is coming in with an overall money line of -473 and a disappointing record of 5-9 as the underdog. Offensively, they average 4.3 runs per game, which is good for fifth in the NL. Washington is excellent at drawing walks with 3.1 per game, ranking fourth in the NL. When it comes to issuing walks, the Nationals have the second-fewest in the NL with an average of just 2.5 walks allowed per game. The Nationals have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 7.8 strikeouts per road game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Brewers have the edge in the season series, 2-0. The Brewers have a bad 8-16 record at home (17-31 overall) against right-handed starting pitchers, which is what they'll be facing when Ross takes the mound. Nelson (RHP) will be on the hill against the Nationals, who have a 22-25 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - WSH, O/U - Over
Milwaukee has won 44% (11-14) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Washington has won 53% (16-14) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Brewers managed to give up four walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Nationals who are coming in with a 14-7 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Brewers have a slight leg up on the Nationals, as the Brewers have won their last two games while the Nationals have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Brewers are 17-4. The Nationals have a 22-2 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 26th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 232 this season. Washington ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 261.
Ranking 25th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 142 this season. Washington ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 192.
When the Brewers hit at least one home run, they are 20-14. When the Nationals hit at least one homer, they have a 23-14 record.