Alex Wood (4-4, 3.56 ERA) and Joe Kelly (2-4, 5.45 ERA) take the hill in the first of a two-game series between the Atlanta Braves (31-34) and the Boston Red Sox (28-38) at Turner Field. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jun. 17 and can be seen on NESN and SPSO.
Wood pitched 6.1 innings in his most recent start, surrendering four runs (one unearned), striking out six and walking four in a 5-3 defeat to the Mets. Freddie Freeman (.303, 43 Rs, 12 HRs, 41 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run and one RBI. Kelly is 1-0 with a 1.46 ERA when pitching against the Braves. He is up against a good Atlanta offense which is hitting .260 this season. Dustin Pedroia (.313, 31 Rs, 9 HRs, 27 RBIs, 1 SB) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 3 yesterday.
Atlanta is a narrow -110 favorite at home against Boston. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at seven runs for this matchup. The Braves have recorded an overall money line of +350 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 9-6. Against the AL, they are winless as the favorite (0-1), but have an SU record of 4-2. The Braves have no trouble scoring as they rank fourth in the NL in offense with 4.3 runs per game. Atlanta's pitchers put it all together when American League teams are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game drops to 3.8 against AL teams, compared to its 4.5 season average.
In games where it is the underdog, Boston has a 9-12 record and an overall money line of -1,844. They have been on a bit of a dry streak over their last 10 games. They managed a 0-2 record when playing as the underdog. Offensively, the Red Sox have really picked up the pace in interleague games. They have exceeded their season average of 3.8 runs per game by averaging 5.7 in those contests. Boston is excellent at drawing walks with 3.2 per game, ranking second in the AL.
The Braves have a 27-29 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Kelly takes the mound. Wood (LHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have an 8-10 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - ATL, O/U - Over
When leading after 7 innings, Boston is 13-16, while Atlanta is 13-23.
The Braves are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Red Sox have a 5-10 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 4-31. The Braves have a 6-21 record when opponents outhit them.
Atlanta ranks near the bottom of the league at 29th when it comes to home runs, hitting 41 this season. Boston ranks in the top half at 12th with 62.
Atlanta and Boston both rank in the top 10 of the league in hits. Atlanta sits at seventh with 8.84 hits per game and Boston ranks ninth with 8.42.
Atlanta and Boston both rank in the bottom half of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Atlanta sits at 19th with an OPS of .698 and Boston ranks 18th with an OPS of .704.
When the Red Sox allow at least one home run, they are 11-30, well-matched with the Braves who are 11-25 when allowing at least one homer.