In the first of a three-game series between the Toronto Blue Jays (36-32) and the Baltimore Orioles (36-32) at the Rogers Centre, Marco Estrada (4-3, 4.24 ERA) and Mike Wright (2-2, 4.13 ERA) take the mound. The game gets underway at 7:07 p.m. ET on Friday, Jun. 19 and will air on MASN and RSN.
Estrada is 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA against the Orioles in his career, and is up against a strong Baltimore offense that's hitting .258 on the year. Josh Donaldson (.307, 55 Rs, 17 HRs, 46 RBIs, 3 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run and one RBI. The Orioles were unsuccessful to the Yankees 5-3 the last time Wright pitched. He went 4.0 innings, allowing five runs, striking out two and walking three. Manny Machado (.289, 43 Rs, 14 HRs, 34 RBIs, 10 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Orioles, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, one RBI, and one stolen base.
Toronto, a -144 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Baltimore. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is nine runs. The Blue Jays have a winning record of 21-12 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +128. They are 8-2 SU and perfect as the favorite (5-0) in their last 10 games. Toronto has averaged 7.3 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 5.5. The Blue Jays lead the majors in extra base hits with 232. The Blue Jays typically don't swing at bad pitches, which has led to an impressive 3.3 walks per game. Transitioning to the pitching staff, the Blue Jays are fifth in the AL in walks allowed at home with just 2.7 per game.
On the other side, the Orioles have a subpar record of 12-18 when they are the underdog, but are +139 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 8-2 SU and have an unblemished 2-0 record when they were an underdog to win. The Orioles rank third in the AL in scoring, averaging 4.5 runs per game. Baltimore's pitching staff has allowed an average of 2.8 runs per game during the last 10 games, lower than their season average of 3.9.
The Blue Jays have mostly come out on top against the Orioles in their previous nine games this season, earning a 6-3 record. The Blue Jays will take on a right-hander (Wright) in this game and have a 24-28 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Orioles will be the right-hander Estrada. They sport a 26-26 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner - TOR, O/U - Over
The Blue Jays are 17-14 against their divisional rivals, while the Orioles are 20-18 against their division.
When leading after 7 innings, Toronto is 20-12, while Baltimore is 16-11.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Orioles are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Blue Jays have a 10-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Orioles are 26-7. The Blue Jays have a 32-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking first in runs, Toronto has earned 376 this season. Baltimore ranks fifth with 295 runs.
Ranking 22nd, Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 163 this season. Toronto ranks in the top five at third with 221.
When the Blue Jays hit at least one home run, they are 32-16, well-matched with the Orioles who are 28-16 when hitting one or more homers.