Scott Copeland (1-1, 2.57 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (37-33) go up against Chris Tillman (5-7, 5.58 ERA) and the Baltimore Orioles (35-33) in the last of a three-game division series at the Rogers Centre. The Orioles won the last game 5-3 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game starts at 1:07 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jun. 21 and will air on MASN and RSN.
In his last start, Copeland pitched 4.0 innings, allowing three runs and striking out one in a 3-2 loss to the Mets. Josh Donaldson (.303, 55 Rs, 17 HRs, 46 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday. In his pitching opportunities against the Blue Jays, Tillman is 4-9 with a 5.23 ERA. He gets a strong Toronto offense that's batting .270. Manny Machado (.298, 47 Rs, 14 HRs, 36 RBIs, 11 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Orioles, going 3 for 5 yesterday with two runs and two RBIs.
Toronto is a -127 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is nine runs. The Blue Jays perform well as a favorite with a 23-12 record and have an overall money line of +328. They are 8-2 SU and perfect as the favorite (5-0) in their last 10 games. The Blue Jays lead the majors in extra base hits with 238. They have been very patient at the plate, ranking second in the AL with an average of 3.3 walks per game. Turning to the pitching staff, the Blue Jays rank fifth in the AL in home ERA with a 3.32 team average. The Blue Jays don't give up many hits to opposing batters at the Rogers Centre, ranking second in the AL with only 7.6 hits allowed per home game.
Moving on to the away team, the Orioles come into this game in an interesting position. They have won more than 60 percent of games played as the underdog (12-19) but have a negative money line (+39). Against teams in their division, they are 20-19 SU and 7-10 as the underdog. They sport the third-ranked offense in the AL, averaging 4.5 runs per game. Playing against AL East foes really brings the worst out of the Baltimore pitchers. They allow 4.4 runs per game against teams within their division, which is higher than their season average of 3.9.
The Blue Jays have gotten the best of the Orioles in head-to-head matchups this season, going 7-4. This game will feature Tillman (RHP) on the mound against the Blue Jays, who have a 26-28 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Copeland will take the mound against the Orioles, who have a 26-27 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - TOR, O/U - Over
The Blue Jays hold an 18-15 record this season against teams in the AL East Division. The Orioles' record in these matchups is 21-19.
The Blue Jays are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Orioles have a 10-13 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Blue Jays are 4-24. The Orioles have a 5-22 record when opponents outhit them.
Both falling in the top five of the league based on total home runs this season, Toronto ranks third with 84 homers and Baltimore is fifth with 82.
Ranking seventh, Baltimore is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.55 per game. Toronto ranks in the top five at third with 9.07.
Ranking first in on-base plus slugging percentage, Toronto has an OPS of .781 this season. Baltimore ranks seventh with an OPS of .732.
When the Orioles allow at least one home run, they are 19-22. When the Blue Jays allow one or more homers, they have a 23-23 record.