Ivan Nova (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and the New York Yankees (38-33) meet Cole Hamels (5-5, 2.96 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies (26-47) in the last of a three-game interleague series at Yankee Stadium. The Phillies won the last game 11-6 and Philadelphia leads the series 2-0. The game starts at 1:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jun. 24 and will air on NBC-10 and YES.
This is the first start of the season for Nova. He pitched 20.2 innings last season, finishing 2-2 with an 8.27 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, and 12 strikeoutsBrett Gardner (.294, 53 Rs, 9 HRs, 37 RBIs, 15 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4 with two runs, one home run, and one RBI. In his pitching opportunities against the Yankees, Hamels is 0-1 with a 2.77 ERA. He gets a solid New York offense that's batting .258. Ben Revere (.292, 39 Rs, 18 RBIs, 18 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Phillies, going 3 for 5 yesterday with three runs.
New York is favored by a small -109 margin in its matchup against Philadelphia. The teams combine to set the Over/Under (O/U) at eight runs. When playing as the favorite, the Yankees have a 22-16 record and overall money line at +48. They have performed well against the NL to earn an SU record of 5-7, but only have a 5-4 record when they were the favorite. The Yankees have one of the most prolific offenses in the entire AL, averaging 4.8 runs per game. The Yankees rank fifth in the AL in hits with 8.9 per game. The Yankees typically don't swing at bad pitches, which has led to an impressive 3.2 walks per game. New York's pitching staff has fallen apart in the past 10 games. Its average runs allowed per game rose to 5.9 during that span, compared to its 4.4 season average. The Yankees are second in the AL in walks allowed with just 2.6 per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Phillies come into this game with a weak win percentage of .344 when playing as the underdog (22-42) and an overall money line of -1,532. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 3-7 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 3-7 record. The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the Philadelphia pitchers. They allowed 6.7 runs per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 4.9.
The previous two games have all gone Philadelphia's way. The Yankees will take on a left-hander (Hamels) in this game and have a 9-7 record against left-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Phillies will be the right-hander Nova. Right-handed starters have been a big issue for them as they sport records of 7-22 on the road and 21-37 overall.
Predictions: SU Winner - NYY, O/U - Under
Philadelphia has won 34% (12-23) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, New York has won 45% (17-21) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Yankees managed to give up four walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Phillies who are coming in with an 8-9 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Phillies have a slight leg up on the Yankees, as the Phillies have won their last three games while the Yankees have lost their last three.
When they outhit their opponents, the Phillies are 16-7. The Yankees have a 26-4 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 29th in runs, Philadelphia has earned 242 this season. New York ranks second with 340 runs.
Ranking 26th, Philadelphia is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 164 this season. New York ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 227.
The Yankees are 32-20 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Phillies are 16-18 when they hit at least one homer.