Dallas Keuchel (8-3, 2.35 ERA) and Adam Warren (5-4, 3.62 ERA) start in the first of a four-game series between the Houston Astros (42-32) and the New York Yankees (39-33) at Minute Maid Park. Action begins at 8:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jun. 25 and can be seen on YES and ROOT-SW.
Keuchel pitched 6.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering five runs, striking out seven and walking four in a 6-3 defeat to the Mariners. When pitching against the Astros, Warren is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and nine strikeouts. Alex Rodriguez (.290, 42 Rs, 15 HRs, 44 RBIs, 1 SB) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 3 yesterday with two RBIs.
Houston is a -145 favorite against New York and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Astros have an overall money line of +903 and a record as the favorite of 19-16. The Astros have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 7.0 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.5 runs per game. The Astros have no trouble scoring as they rank fourth in the AL in offense with 4.5 runs per game. The Astros are one of the best in the MLB in terms of extra base hits with 241. Houston is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 57 bases. Crossing over to the pitching staff, the Astros are the top team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.18 so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, New York has a 16-16 record and an overall money line of -130. They have been on a bit of a dry streak over their last 10 games. They managed a 0-1 record when playing as the underdog. Offensively, the Yankees have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.9 runs per game by averaging 6.3 during that stretch. The Yankees can change the game with one swing of the bat, ranking second in the league with 98 home runs. The Yankees allow 4.5 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 6.0 runs per game during that span. The Yankees have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an AL-best 8.5 strikeouts per game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Astros have a great 14-6 record at home (26-15 overall) against right-handed starting pitchers, which is what they'll be facing when Warren takes the mound. Keuchel (LHP) will be on the hill against the Yankees, who have a 10-7 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - HOU, O/U - Over
When leading after 7 innings, Houston is 17-12, while New York is 18-21.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Astros are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Yankees have a 10-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Astros are 29-9. The Yankees have a 27-4 record when outhitting opponents.
Houston and New York both rank in the top five of the league in runs. Houston sits at third with 331 runs this season and New York ranks second with 350.
Ranking sixth, Houston is in the top 10 of the league in walks, notching 231 this season. New York ranks in the top five at fourth with 233.
When the Astros hit at least one home run, they are 34-19, well-matched with the Yankees who are 32-20 when hitting one or more homers.