In the last of a three-game series between the Miami Marlins (30-43) and the St. Louis Cardinals (30-43) at Marlins Park, Dan Haren (6-4, 3.19 ERA) and Tyler Lyons (2-0, 5.09 ERA) take the mound. The Cardinals won the last game 6-1 and St. Louis leads the series 2-0. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jun. 25 and will air on FSN-MW and FSN-FL.
Haren is 4-2 with a 4.05 ERA against the Cardinals in his career, and is up against a solid St. Louis offense that's hitting .264 on the year. Giancarlo Stanton (.268, 47 Rs, 27 HRs, 67 RBIs, 4 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 3 for 4 with one run, one home run, and one RBI. In his career against the Marlins, Lyons is 0-1 with a 10.12 ERA, 2.06 WHIP, and six strikeouts. Matt Carpenter (.290, 43 Rs, 8 HRs, 34 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI.
Miami, a +111 underdog, will look to capitalize at home against St. Louis. Oddsmakers have set the Over/Under (O/U) at seven runs. The Marlins perform poorly as an underdog with a 15-24 record and have an overall money line of -1,355. They are 2-5 as the underdog over their last 10 games.
Switching to the opposing bench, the Cardinals come into this game with a solid win percentage of .725 when playing as the favorite (37-14) and an overall money line of +1,834. They have played at the top of their game when rated as favorite recently. They managed a 7-3 record when playing as the favorite and an SU record of 7-3. The Cardinals are a problem for opposing batters, sporting an NL-low 2.72 ERA this season. They also allow just 2.7 walks per game, good for fifth in the NL.
The previous two games have all gone St. Louis's way. This game will feature Lyons (LHP) on the mound against the Marlins, who have an 8-7 record when they take on a left-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Cardinals will be the right-hander Haren. Right-handed starters haven't been a big issue for them as they sport a 39-15 record.
Predictions: SU Winner - STL, O/U - Over
Miami has won 37% (14-24) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, St. Louis has won 70% (19-8) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Marlins are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Cardinals have a 22-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
It looks like the Cardinals have a slight leg up on the Marlins, as the Cardinals have won their last two games while the Marlins have lost their last three.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 23-12. The Cardinals have a 32-8 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 24th in runs, Miami has earned 275 this season. St. Louis ranks 18th with 289 runs.
Ranking 25th, Miami is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 169 this season. St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 218.
When the Marlins hit at least one home run, they are 20-25. When the Cardinals hit at least one homer, they have a 30-10 record.