This game could be low scoring as Eduardo Rodriguez (3-1, 3.13 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (32-41) meet Miguel Gonzalez (5-4, 3.33 ERA) and the Baltimore Orioles (37-34) in the last of a three-game series at Fenway Park. The Red Sox won the last game 5-1 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game starts at 1:35 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jun. 25 and will air on MASN and NESN.
In his most recent outing, Rodriguez pitched 6.1 innings, giving up one run, striking out five and walking one in a 7-3 victory over the Royals. Hanley Ramirez (.283, 41 Rs, 15 HRs, 38 RBIs, 3 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 2. In his pitching opportunities against the Red Sox, Gonzalez is 5-1 with a 2.93 ERA. He gets a solid Boston offense that's batting .255. Jimmy Paredes (.311, 30 Rs, 8 HRs, 34 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been doing well, going 2 for 4 yesterday.
Boston, a -125 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Baltimore. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is eight runs. When playing as the favorite, the Red Sox have a 20-27 record and overall money line at -1,765. They have not performed well against their division, earning an SU record of 10-22 and a 6-14 record when they were the favorite. The most recent 10-game stretch for the Red Sox has gone great. Over that span, Boston is averaging 5.5 runs per game, well over their season average of 4.1. The Red Sox typically don't swing at bad pitches, which has led to an impressive 3.2 walks per game. Whenever an AL East opponent shows up on the calendar, the Red Sox seem to struggle with pitching. They allow an average of 4.7 runs per game, but allow 5.7 against teams from their own division.
On the other side, the Orioles have a record of 15-19 when they are the underdog and are +376 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 7-3 SU and have played well as the underdog with a 3-1 record. The Orioles rank third in the AL in scoring, averaging 4.6 runs per game. Baltimore's pitching staff tends to perform poorly when they play division rivals. They've allowed an average of 4.5 runs per game against teams from the AL East, higher than their season average of 4.0.
The Orioles have gotten the better of the Red Sox in head-to-head matchups this season, going 8-4. This game will feature Gonzalez (RHP) on the mound against the Red Sox, who have a 23-30 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Orioles will be the left-hander Rodriguez. They sport a 9-6 record against southpaws.
Predictions: SU Winner - BAL, O/U - Over
The Red Sox are struggling at 11-22 in their division, while the Orioles are 23-20.
Boston has won 47% (15-17) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Baltimore has won 61% (17-11) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Orioles are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Red Sox have an 11-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Orioles are 28-8. The Red Sox have a 27-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 14th in runs, Boston has earned 298 this season. Baltimore ranks fifth with 324 runs.
Ranking 22nd, Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 178 this season. Boston ranks in the top five at fourth with 233.
The Red Sox are 24-23 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Orioles are 30-16 when they hit at least one homer.