A.J. Burnett (6-3, 2.05 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (40-31) meet Anthony DeSclafani (5-5, 3.48 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (33-37) in the last of a three-game division series at PNC Park. The Reds won the last game 5-2 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jun. 25 and will air on FSN-OH and ROOT-PIT.
Burnett is 8-6 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.28 WHIP against the Reds in his career. Andrew McCutchen (.292, 37 Rs, 9 HRs, 44 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. In his career against the Pirates, DeSclafani is 0-1 with a 4.09 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and seven strikeouts. Todd Frazier (.289, 52 Rs, 23 HRs, 49 RBIs, 8 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run and one RBI.
Pittsburgh is a -160 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. The Pirates have a winning record of 34-16 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +504. They are 7-1 as the favorite over their last 10 games. The Pirates rank second in the NL in home ERA with a 2.67 team average. The Pirates don't give up many hits to opposing batters, ranking fifth in the NL with only 8.3 hits allowed per game.
Across the field, the Reds have a subpar record of 12-26 when they are the underdog and are -626 overall with the money line. Against fellow NL Central members, they are 13-16 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with an 8-13 record. Cincinnati is a terror on the base paths, with an MLB-best 71 stolen bases.
The Reds have gotten the best of the Pirates in head-to-head matchups this season, going 6-2. This game will feature DeSclafani (RHP) on the mound against the Pirates, who have a 32-25 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Burnett will take the mound against the Reds, who have a 23-27 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - PIT, O/U - Over
The Pirates are 14-19 against their divisional rivals, while the Reds are 14-16 against their division.
When the Reds play into extra innings, they have a 3-5 record. The Pirates are 2-6 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Reds are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Pirates have an 8-17 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 25-9. The Pirates have a 29-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total runs this season, Pittsburgh ranks 23rd with 282 runs and Cincinnati is 22nd with 286.
Ranking 23rd, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 177 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 221.
When the Pirates hit at least one home run, they are 24-15, well-matched with the Reds who are 29-19 when hitting one or more homers.