Matt Harvey (7-5, 3.18 ERA) and the New York Mets (38-37) go up against Michael Lorenzen (3-2, 3.56 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (34-38) in the second of a three-game series at Citi Field. The Mets won the last game 2-1 and New York leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 4:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jun. 27 and will air on FSN-OH and PIX11.
In his most recent outing, Harvey pitched 6.2 innings, allowing one run, striking out five and walking one in a 1-0 loss to the Braves. Curtis Granderson (.250, 41 Rs, 12 HRs, 24 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run, one home run, one RBI, and one stolen base. The Reds were victorious over the Marlins 5-2 the last time Lorenzen pitched. He went 7.0 innings, giving up two runs, striking out five and walking one. Todd Frazier (.293, 53 Rs, 24 HRs, 52 RBIs, 8 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
New York, a -171 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Cincinnati. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is seven runs. The Mets are in an interesting position this season. While they have a notable winning record in games where they're the favorite (31-12), their overall money line (-263) is less impressive. New York has averaged 1.8 runs per game over the last 10 games, lower than its season average of 3.6. Transitioning to the pitching staff, the Mets are fifth in the league in WHIP at 1.20.
Moving on to the away team, the Reds come into this game with a weak win percentage of .350 when playing as the underdog (14-26) and an overall money line of -312. Cincinnati is one of the top home-run-hitting teams in the league with 86 home runs. Cincinnati is a terror on the base paths, with an MLB-best 75 stolen bases. Switching gears to Cincinnati's pitching staff, they allow just 8.3 hits per game, good for fourth in the NL.
The only other game between the two teams went New York's way. The Mets will take on a right-hander (Lorenzen) in this game and have a 31-31 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Reds will be the right-hander Harvey. They sport a 25-27 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner - CIN, O/U - Over
The Reds lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Mets are 14-12. The Reds are 10-14 in close games this season.
When the Mets play into extra innings, they have a 3-1 record. The Reds are 4-5 when their games exceed nine innings.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Reds are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Mets have a 16-3 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 26-10. The Mets have a 24-3 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 26th in runs, New York has earned 267 this season. Cincinnati ranks 19th with 292 runs.
Ranking 20th, New York is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 196 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 224.
When the Mets hit at least one home run, they are 24-14, well-matched with the Reds who are 30-19 when hitting one or more homers.