Runs may be hard to come by in this one as Brett Oberholtzer (2-1, 2.81 ERA) and the Houston Astros (43-33) go up against Masahiro Tanaka (4-3, 3.17 ERA) and the New York Yankees (40-34) in the third of a four-game series at Minute Maid Park. The Yankees won the last game 3-2 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game starts at 4:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jun. 27 and will air on YES and ROOT-SW.
Oberholtzer has a 4.96 ERA and a 0-2 record in his career against the Yankees, and is up against a solid New York offense that's hitting .259 on the year. Jose Altuve (.291, 34 Rs, 5 HRs, 29 RBIs, 21 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run and one stolen base. The Yankees were unsuccessful to the Tigers 12-4 the last time Tanaka pitched. He went 5.0 innings, allowing five runs (two unearned), striking out six and walking two. Brett Gardner (.294, 55 Rs, 9 HRs, 38 RBIs, 15 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Yankees, going 2 for 5 yesterday.
Houston is a +125 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is seven runs. The Astros have a winning record of 23-15 when playing as the underdog and an overall money line of +892. Over the last 10 games, they have had a very good record when playing as the underdog (3-1). Over their past 10 games, Houston's offense has been playing lights out, averaging 5.6 runs per game, well over their season average of 4.5. The Astros come into the game with the fifth-ranked scoring offense in the AL, averaging 4.5 runs per game. The Astros rank second in the majors in extra base hits with 246. The Astros are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with 61 steals, one of the highest totals in baseball. Transitioning to the pitching staff, the Astros don't allow many hitters to get on base, leading the league with a 1.18 WHIP.
On the other side, the Yankees have a record of 23-17 when they are favored and are -230 overall with the money line. During the last 10 games, they averaged 6.2 runs per game, above their 4.8 season average. New York is one of the top home-run-hitting teams in the league with 99 home runs. The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the New York pitchers. They allowed 6.2 runs per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 4.5. The New York pitching staff has been an intimidating group this year, averaging 8.4 strikeouts per game.
This game will feature Tanaka (RHP) on the mound against the Astros, who have a 15-6 home and 27-16 overall record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Yankees will be the left-hander Oberholtzer. They sport a 10-8 record against southpaws.
Predictions: SU Winner - NYY, O/U - Over
In their last game, the Yankees won by a margin of one run. The Astros are 11-11 in one-run games. The Yankees have a 10-10 record in close games.
When the Astros play into extra innings, they have a 3-3 record. The Yankees are 1-4 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Yankees are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded 11 strikeouts. The Astros have a record of 10-13 when they are struck out that many times or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Astros are 30-9. The Yankees have a 28-4 record when outhitting opponents.
Houston and New York both rank in the top five of the league in runs. Houston sits at fourth with 337 runs this season and New York ranks second with 353.
Both Houston and New York are tied at seventh in walks with a total of 237 this season.
The Astros are 34-19 when they hit at least one home run. The Yankees perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 33-20 record.