Matt Garza (4-9, 5.48 ERA) and Kyle Gibson (4-6, 3.35 ERA) take the hill in the second of a three-game series between the Milwaukee Brewers (28-47) and the Minnesota Twins (39-34) at Miller Park. The Brewers won the last game 10-4 and Milwaukee leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 2:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jun. 27 and can be seen on FSN-N and FSN-WI.
Garza pitched 5.1 innings in his last outing, surrendering seven runs (three unearned) and striking out four in a 10-4 defeat to the Rockies. Ryan Braun (.254, 41 Rs, 14 HRs, 46 RBIs, 8 SBs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 4 with two runs, one RBI, and one stolen base. Gibson is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA against the Brewers in his career. He takes on a below-average Milwaukee offense that's batting just .239. Brian Dozier (.268, 57 Rs, 15 HRs, 37 RBIs, 6 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Twins, going 3 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
Milwaukee is a -116 favorite against Minnesota and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Brewers have recorded an overall money line of -1,754 and have shown a weak performance as a favorite this season with a record of 9-16. Milwaukee is unbeaten as the favorite and has a 4-6 SU record in its last ten outings. The Brewers have seen an uptick in scoring against teams in the AL, averaging 4.4 runs per game. They average 3.7 runs per game on the season.
In games where it is the underdog, Minnesota has a 32-27 record and an overall money line of +1,216. Minnesota is 6-4 as the underdog and 6-7 SU against interleague opponents. Offensively, the Twins have really sputtered in interleague games. They have decreased their season average of 4.2 runs per game by averaging 3.2 in those contests. When it comes to issuing walks, the Twins have the fewest in the AL with only 2.4 walks allowed per game.
The Brewers lead the season series, 3-1. The Brewers have a bad 20-39 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Gibson takes the mound. Garza (RHP) will be on the hill against the Twins, who have a 21-24 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - MIN, O/U - Over
When leading after 7 innings, Minnesota is 11-15, while Milwaukee is 13-18.
The Brewers are coming into this matchup after a high-scoring game where they scored a whopping 10 runs. The Twins have a 0-8 record when opponents score that many runs or more.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 6-39. The Twins have a 7-31 record when opponents outhit them.
Minnesota ranks near the bottom of the league at 24th when it comes to home runs, hitting 58 this season. Milwaukee ranks in the top half at 15th with 66.
Ranking 14th, Milwaukee is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.99 per game. Minnesota ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 8.35.
Milwaukee and Minnesota both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Milwaukee sits at 25th with an OPS of .670 and Minnesota ranks 21st with an OPS of .689.
When the Twins allow at least one home run, they are 22-25. When the Brewers allow one or more homers, they have an 18-31 record.