Bartolo Colon (9-6, 4.89 ERA) and Jon Lester (4-6, 4.03 ERA) take the hill in the second of a three-game series between the New York Mets (40-38) and the Chicago Cubs (40-35) at Citi Field. The Cubs won the last game 1-0 and Chicago leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jul. 1 and can be seen on WGN and SNY.
Colon is 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and 13 strikeouts against the Cubs. Lucas Duda (.260, 37 Rs, 10 HRs, 33 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. Lester is 2-0 with a 4.09 ERA against the Mets in his career. He takes on a below-average New York offense that's batting just .233. Kris Bryant (.275, 41 Rs, 10 HRs, 43 RBIs, 6 SBs) went 1 for 2 yesterday with one run.
Chicago takes on New York as a -120 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at seven runs. Though the Mets have had a solid season in terms of their overall money line (+47), they've have done poorly as an underdog with a record of 7-25. New York has recorded a disappointing 1-3 record as the underdog over its last 10 games. The Mets have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 2.2 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 3.6 runs per game. As for the pitchers, opposing offenses have been stifled by the Mets, who have a team ERA of only 3.47. The Mets are the fourth-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.20 so far this season.
In games where it is the favorite, Chicago has a 23-19 record and an overall money line of +88. They played poorly as the favorite over their last 10 games with a 1-3 record, and a 4-6 record SU. Offensively, the Cubs have really sputtered in the last 10 games. They have decreased their season average of 4.0 runs per game by averaging 2.5 during that stretch. The Cubs are tough outs for opponents, ranking fifth in the NL with 8.9 hits per road game. Chicago's pitching staff is one of the top in the NL, with a 3.53 ERA. When it comes to preventing batters from getting on base, the Cubs are one of the best in the league with a WHIP of 1.19 for the season. The Cubs have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.3 strikeouts per road game.
The Cubs lead the season series, 5-0. The Mets have a 6-6 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Lester takes the mound. Colon (RHP) will be on the hill against the Cubs, who have a 33-31 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - CHC, O/U - Over
In their last game, the Cubs won by a margin of one run. The Mets are 15-13 in one-run games. The Cubs have a 19-13 record in close games.
Chicago has won 52% (16-15) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, New York has won 53% (17-15) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Mets are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Cubs have a 9-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they are outhit, the Cubs are 7-27. The Mets have an 11-31 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 19th in home runs, New York has hit 65 this season. Chicago ranks 13th with 71 home runs.
New York and Chicago both rank in the top half of the league in hits. New York sits at 15th with 7.75 hits per game and Chicago ranks 11th with 8.38.
Ranking 28th, New York is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.659). Chicago ranks in the bottom half at 18th with an OPS of .702.
The Cubs are 22-23 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Mets are 16-25 when they allow at least one homer.