Mark Buehrle (8-4, 3.81 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (41-38) go up against Rick Porcello (4-8, 5.54 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (36-43) in the third of a four-game division series at the Rogers Centre. The Red Sox won the last game 4-3 and Boston leads the series 2-0. The game starts at 1:07 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jul. 1 and will air on NESN and RSN.
Buehrle is 10-10 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.44 WHIP against the Red Sox in his career. Chris Colabello (.335, 32 Rs, 6 HRs, 29 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI. In his pitching opportunities against the Blue Jays, Porcello is 3-5 with a 4.24 ERA. He meets a strong Toronto offense that's batting .264. Hanley Ramirez (.283, 41 Rs, 15 HRs, 38 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Red Sox, going 2 for 2 yesterday.
Toronto is a -148 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at nine runs. The Blue Jays perform well as a favorite with a 25-16 record and have an overall money line of +122. They have an SU record of 20-18 against teams in their division and a 9-7 record when they were the favorite in those games. The Blue Jays have the most prolific offense in the entire AL, averaging 5.4 runs per game. The Blue Jays are an exceptional hitting team with 8.9 hits per game, one of the highest marks in the AL.
Switching gears, the Red Sox come into this game with a win percentage of .483 when playing as the underdog (14-15) and an overall money line of -1,518. They have played at the top of their game when rated as the underdog as of late. They managed a 5-2 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 6-4. Boston has been playing better lately, averaging 5.2 runs per game, more than their season average of 4.1. The Red Sox average just 6.5 strikeouts per game, one of the lowest marks in the AL. Boston's pitching staff tends to perform poorly when they play division rivals. They've allowed an average of 5.3 runs per game against teams from the AL East, higher than their season average of 4.6.
The Blue Jays have mostly come out on top against the Red Sox in their previous 11 games this season, earning a 6-5 record. The Blue Jays will take on a right-hander (Porcello) in this game and have a 30-33 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The left-handed Buehrle will take the mound against the Red Sox, who have an 8-11 record against lefty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - TOR, O/U - Over
The Red Sox currently sit below .500 against the AL East Division at 15-24, and the Blue Jays have a 20-19 record.
Boston has won 47% (17-19) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Toronto has won 59% (23-16) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Blue Jays managed to give up five walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Red Sox who are coming in with a 13-8 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Red Sox have a slight leg up on the Blue Jays, as the Red Sox have won their last three games while the Blue Jays have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Red Sox are 29-5. The Blue Jays have a 35-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Toronto ranks at the top of the league when it comes to runs with 424 this season. Boston ranks in the top half at 14th with 321.
Ranking seventh, Boston is in the top 10 of the league in walks, notching 248 this season. Toronto ranks in the top five at third with 257.
When the Blue Jays hit at least one home run, they are 36-19. When the Red Sox hit at least one homer, they have a 26-25 record.