Johnny Cueto (4-5, 2.98 ERA) and Trevor May (4-6, 4.62 ERA) are on the hill in the last of a three-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (35-41) and the Minnesota Twins (41-36) at the Great American Ball Park. The Twins won the last game 8-5 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 12:35 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jul. 1 and can be seen on FSN-N.
Cueto pitched 6.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering two runs, striking out six and walking three in a 2-1 defeat to the Mets. Todd Frazier (.287, 54 Rs, 25 HRs, 54 RBIs, 8 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday. May went 0.1 inning, surrendering five runs (one unearned) in a 10-4 defeat to the Brewers in his most recent start. Brian Dozier (.268, 60 Rs, 16 HRs, 40 RBIs, 7 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Twins, going 2 for 5 yesterday with two runs.
This one isn't expected to be close when Cincinnati, a substantial -190 favorite, takes on Minnesota. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at seven runs for this matchup. Though the Reds have had a tough season in terms of their overall money line (-532), they have done fairly well as a favorite with a record of 21-12. Against the AL, they are unbeaten as the favorite (2-0), but have an SU record of 4-8. The Reds have no trouble scoring as they rank third in the NL in home offense with 4.7 runs per game. The Reds are one of the best in the NL in terms of hits at home with a phenomenal 8.8 per game. Cincinnati leads the MLB in steals, swiping 81 bases. Cincinnati's pitchers fall apart when American League teams are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game rises to 4.9 against AL teams, compared to its 4.2 season average.
In games where it is the underdog, Minnesota has a 33-29 record and an overall money line of +1,140. Minnesota is 7-6 as the underdog and 7-9 SU against National League opponents. Offensively, the Twins have really sputtered in interleague games. They have decreased their season average of 4.2 runs per game by averaging 3.6 in those contests.
The Reds have a 26-29 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when May takes the mound. Cueto (RHP) will be on the hill against the Twins, who have a 22-26 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - CIN, O/U - Over
Minnesota recorded at least two errors for the 11th time this season.
The Twins are 3-2 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Reds are 4-6 in such matchups.
The Twins are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Reds have a 10-20 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 27-10. The Twins have a 28-1 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 17th in runs, Cincinnati has earned 311 this season. Minnesota ranks 13th with 328 runs.
Ranking 24th, Minnesota is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 188 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 239.
When the Reds hit at least one home run, they are 30-21. When the Twins hit at least one homer, they have a 30-15 record.