Runs may be hard to come by in this one as Jacob deGrom (8-5, 2.15 ERA) and the New York Mets (40-39) go up against Jake Arrieta (7-5, 2.94 ERA) and the Chicago Cubs (41-35) in the last of a three-game series at Citi Field. The Cubs won the last game 2-0 and Chicago leads the series 2-0. The game gets underway at 1:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jul. 2 and will air on WGN and SNY.
In his last start, deGrom pitched 8.0 innings, allowing zero runs and striking out seven in a 2-0 victory over the Brewers. Curtis Granderson (.254, 42 Rs, 13 HRs, 27 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday. In his pitching opportunities against the Mets, Arrieta is 1-1 with a 2.02 ERA. He meets a less-than-stellar New York offense that's batting just .232. Anthony Rizzo (.298, 43 Rs, 15 HRs, 44 RBIs, 12 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run and one stolen base.
New York, a -119 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Chicago. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at six runs. The Mets are in an interesting position this season. While they have a notable winning record in games where they're the favorite (33-12), their overall money line (-53) is less impressive. New York has averaged 2.1 runs per game over the last 10 games, lower than its season average of 3.5. New York's pitching staff can be considered one of the best in the NL. The Mets have a team ERA of 3.44, one of the lowest in their league. The Mets don't allow many hitters to get on base, ranking fourth in the league with a 1.19 WHIP.
Switching gears, the Cubs come into this game with a win percentage of .500 when playing as the underdog (16-16) and an overall money line of +188. During the last 10 games, they averaged 2.4 runs per game, below their 4.0 season average. Switching gears to Chicago's pitching staff, they have the fifth-lowest ERA in the NL at 3.48. They have a WHIP of 1.18 on the year, good for second in the league.
The Cubs are a perfect 6-0 against the Mets this season. The Mets will take on a right-hander (Arrieta) in this game and have a 34-32 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed deGrom will take the mound against the Cubs, who have a 33-31 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - CHC, O/U - Over
Chicago earned its 10th shutout of the season in its last game. New York has been shut out nine times this season.
The Cubs are 10-4 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Mets are 4-2 in such matchups.
The Cubs are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Mets have a 12-32 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Cubs are 7-27. The Mets have an 11-32 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 20th in home runs, New York has hit 65 this season. Chicago ranks 13th with 71 home runs.
New York and Chicago both rank in the top half of the league in hits. New York sits at 15th with 7.69 hits per game and Chicago ranks 11th with 8.32.
Ranking 28th, New York is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.656). Chicago ranks in the bottom half at 19th with an OPS of .701.
When the Cubs allow at least one home run, they are 22-23. When the Mets allow one or more homers, they have a 16-25 record.