Ivan Nova (1-1, 1.50 ERA) and the New York Yankees (44-37) go up against Erasmo Ramirez (6-3, 4.01 ERA) and the Tampa Bay Rays (42-41) in the last of a three-game division series at Yankee Stadium. The Rays lost the last game 3-2, extending a seven-game losing streak. The game starts at 1:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jul. 5 and will air on SunSports, YES and MLB Net.
Nova is 6-5 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.32 WHIP against the Rays in his career. Brett Gardner (.299, 60 Rs, 9 HRs, 39 RBIs, 15 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run. In his career against the Yankees, Ramirez is 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA. He gets a strong New York offense that's batting .255.
New York is a -140 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. When playing as the favorite, the Yankees have a 25-17 record and overall money line at -120. They are 3-1 as the favorite over their last 10 games. The Yankees are a dangerous hitting team with 256 extra base hits, one of the highest totals in the MLB. The Yankees typically don't swing at bad pitches, which has led to an impressive 3.2 walks per game. Transitioning to the pitching staff, the Yankees don't give up many walks to opposing batters, ranking second in the AL with only 2.6 walks allowed per game. The have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out, averaging 8.4 strikeouts per game.
Across the field, the Rays have a record of 21-21 when they are the underdog and are +92 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 2-8 SU and have a poor 0-4 record when they were an underdog to win. The Rays will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent offensive struggles. In their 10 most recent games, Tampa Bay's run production has dropped to 2.7 runs per game, compared to 4.7 for the duration of the season. Tampa Bay is a terror on the base paths, ranking fifth in the MLB with 60 stolen bases. The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the Tampa Bay pitchers. They allowed 4.7 runs per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 3.7. They have a WHIP of 1.20, fifth best in the MLB.
The Yankees have gotten the best of the Rays in head-to-head matchups this season, going 8-4. The Yankees will take on a right-hander (Ramirez) in this game and have a 32-27 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - NYY, O/U - Over
The Rays are an even 20-20 against the division, while the Yankees sit at 19-15.
New York has won 45% (19-23) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Tampa Bay has won 50% (16-16) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Yankees are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Rays have a 9-14 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
The Yankees are coming into the game with three consecutive wins, while the Rays currently have a losing streak of seven.
When they outhit their opponents, the Rays are 29-11. The Yankees have a 29-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 25th, Tampa Bay sits near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 298 this season. New York ranks in the top five at second with 378.
Ranking 18th, Tampa Bay is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 220 this season. New York ranks in the top five at fourth with 266.
When the Yankees hit at least one home run, they are 36-21, well-matched with the Rays who are 30-19 when hitting one or more homers.