Shelby Miller (5-4, 2.20 ERA) and the Atlanta Braves (40-41) square off against Cole Hamels (5-6, 3.22 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies (27-56) in a game that has the potential to be low scoring. This is the last of a three-game series at Turner Field. The Phillies lost the last game 9-5, continuing a six-game losing streak. Action begins at 1:35 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jul. 5 and can be seen on CSN-PHI and FSN-S.
Miller is 3-1 with a 2.41 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 24 strikeouts against the Phillies. Cameron Maybin (.295, 34 Rs, 7 HRs, 39 RBIs, 15 SBs) had another good game yesterday, going 3 for 5 with three runs, one home run, two RBIs, and one stolen base. Hamels is 16-9 with a 3.21 ERA when pitching against the Braves. He is up against a good Atlanta offense which is hitting .256 this season. Cesar Hernandez (.288, 29 Rs, 1 HR, 19 RBIs, 9 SBs) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one RBI.
Atlanta is a -120 favorite against Philadelphia and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at six runs. The Braves have recorded an overall money line of +558 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 11-6. Atlanta is unbeaten as the favorite and has a 4-6 SU record in its last ten outings. The Braves have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 1.9 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 3.9 runs per game. Atlanta strikes out the least of any team in the NL, with only 6.8 per game. Turning to the pitchers, the Braves are the fourth-best team in the NL at limiting hits during home games, allowing only 8.3 hits per game to their opponents this season.
As for their opponent, Philadelphia is coming in with an overall money line of -1,968 and a disappointing record of 24-49 as the underdog. They played poorly as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 2-7 record, and a 2-8 record SU. Offensively, the Phillies have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 3.4 runs per game by averaging 4.5 during that stretch. Philadelphia is excellent at not striking out with just 7.0 per game, ranking third in the NL. The Phillies average 5.0 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL East is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 4.3 against division foes.
The Braves lead the season series, 5-3. The Braves have a 33-35 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Hamels takes the mound. Miller (RHP) will be on the hill against the Phillies, who have inferior records against right-handed starting pitchers on the road and overall of 7-24 and 22-45, respectively.
Predictions: SU Winner - ATL, O/U - Under
The Phillies currently sit below .500 against the NL East Division at 11-25, and the Braves have a 21-20 record.
Philadelphia has won 32% (13-28) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Atlanta has won 42% (19-26) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Atlanta batters brought in a solid 10 hits last game. Philadelphia has a record of 10-32 when their opponents get that many hits or more.
The Braves are coming into the game with four consecutive wins, while the Phillies currently have a losing streak of six.
When they outhit their opponents, the Phillies are 17-9. The Braves have a 28-12 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 28th, Philadelphia sits near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 281 this season. Atlanta ranks in the bottom half at 19th with 322.
Ranking 27th, Philadelphia is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 187 this season. Atlanta ranks in the top half at 15th with 233.
The Braves are 23-14 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Phillies are 16-23 when they hit at least one homer.