Taylor Jungmann (2-1, 2.79 ERA) gets the ball for the Milwaukee Brewers (35-48) as they go up against Mike Leake (5-4, 4.38 ERA) and the Cincinnati Reds (36-43) in the last of a three-game series at the Great American Ball Park. The Brewers won the last game 7-3, extending a seven-game winning streak. The game gets underway at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jul. 5 and will air on FSN-WI and FSN-OH.
Leake is 2-3 with a 4.61 ERA, 32 strikeouts and 15 walks against the Brewers in his career. Todd Frazier (.289, 54 Rs, 25 HRs, 54 RBIs, 8 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 4 for 5. The Brewers were unsuccessful the last time Jungmann pitched. He pitched well, going, going 6.0 innings, giving up two runs (one unearned), striking out four and walking two in a 4-3 loss to the Phillies. Adam Lind (.295, 34 Rs, 13 HRs, 48 RBIs) has been doing well, going 2 for 3 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and one RBI.
Cincinnati, a -122 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Milwaukee. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is eight runs. The Reds are in an interesting position this season. While they have a notable winning record in games where they're the favorite (22-13), their overall money line (-655) is less impressive. They have an SU record of 15-17 against teams in their division and a 5-3 record when they were the favorite in those games. They have been a terror on the base paths, leading all of baseball with 81 steals.
Moving on to the away team, the Brewers come into this game with a weak win percentage of .392 when playing as the underdog (20-31) and an overall money line of -1,274. Against divisional opponents, they are 13-19 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 9-14 record. During the last 10 games, they averaged 6.1 runs per game, above their 3.9 season average. Milwaukee's pitching staff has allowed an average of 3.5 runs per game during the last 10 games, lower than their season average of 4.7.
The Reds have mostly come out on top against the Brewers in their previous nine games this season, earning a 5-4 record. This game will feature Jungmann (RHP) on the mound against the Reds, who have a 27-31 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Leake will take the mound against the Brewers, who have a 24-40 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - CIN, O/U - Over
The Reds hold a 15-18 record this season against teams in the NL Central Division. The Brewers' record in these matchups is 14-19.
The Brewers are 3-2 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Reds are 4-6 in such matchups.
The Brewers are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Reds have a 2-11 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 6-39. The Reds have a 6-30 record when opponents outhit them.
Milwaukee ranks in the top half of the league at 15th when it comes to home runs, hitting 73 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 92.
Cincinnati and Milwaukee both rank in the top 10 of the league in hits. Cincinnati sits at ninth with 8.55 hits per game and Milwaukee ranks 10th with 8.45.
Ranking 21st, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.692). Cincinnati ranks in the top half at 12th with an OPS of .719.
The Brewers are 22-32 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Reds are 16-34 when they allow at least one homer.