Carlos Carrasco (10-6, 3.88 ERA) and the Cleveland Indians (38-43) go up against Dallas Keuchel (10-3, 2.03 ERA) and the Houston Astros (48-36) in the first of a four-game series at Progressive Field. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Jul. 6 and will air on ROOT-SW and STO.
In his most recent outing, Carrasco pitched 8.2 innings, allowing one run, striking out 13 and walking two in an 8-1 victory over the Rays. Jason Kipnis (.341, 56 Rs, 6 HRs, 35 RBIs, 10 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run. In his pitching opportunities against the Indians, Keuchel is 2-0 with a 1.75 ERA, 17 strikeouts and seven walks. Jose Altuve (.301, 42 Rs, 7 HRs, 35 RBIs, 24 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run and one stolen base.
Cleveland is a -128 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. The Indians are 25-27 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -1,299. They have SU record of 6-4 and are unbeaten as the favorite (4-0) over their last 10 games. The Indians typically don't swing at bad pitches, which has led to an AL-high 4.0 walks per home game. Cleveland's pitching staff has put it all together in the past 10 games. Its average runs allowed per game dropped to 2.9 during that span, compared to its 4.3 season average. The have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out, leading the AL with 9.3 strikeouts per game.
Switching gears, the Astros come into this game with a win percentage of .585 when playing as the underdog (24-17) and an overall money line of +1,069. The Astros rank second in the AL in road scoring, averaging four runs per game. Houston is one of the top road hitting teams in the AL with an average of 9.0 hits per contest. Houston is a terror on the base paths, ranking third in the MLB with 68 stolen bases. Switching gears to Houston's pitching staff, they have the fifth-lowest road ERA in the AL at 3.81. They have a WHIP of 1.19, third best in the MLB.
The Indians are 2-1 against the Astros this season. This game will feature Keuchel (LHP) on the mound against the Indians, who have a 12-19 record when they take on a left-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Astros will be the right-hander Carrasco. They sport a 31-19 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner - HOU, O/U - Over
The Astros lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Indians are 9-9. The Astros are 12-12 in close games this season.
Cleveland has won 52% (13-12) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Houston has won 59% (20-14) of its games when taking a late lead.
After a weak showing last week where they got in five hits, the Indians need to step it up. The Astros have a record of 12-1 when opponents get five hits or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Indians are 6-32. The Astros have a 10-25 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking first in home runs, Houston has hit 118 this season. Cleveland ranks 21st with 68 home runs.
Ranking 13th, Houston is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.12 per game. Cleveland ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 8.41.
Ranking 17th, Cleveland is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.708). Houston ranks in the top 10 at sixth with an OPS of .735.
The Astros are 18-25 when they allow at least one home run. The Indians perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 24-34 record.