Phil Hughes (7-6, 4.27 ERA) and the Minnesota Twins (43-39) meet Wei-Yin Chen (4-4, 2.84 ERA) and the Baltimore Orioles (43-39) in the first of a three-game series at Target Field. The game starts at 8:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Jul. 6 and will air on MASN2 and FSN-N.
Hughes has a 4.67 ERA and an 8-5 record in his career against the Orioles, and faces a solid Baltimore offense that's hitting .257 on the year. Brian Dozier (.260, 62 Rs, 16 HRs, 40 RBIs, 7 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. In his pitching opportunities against the Twins, Chen is 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA, 20 strikeouts and two walks. Jimmy Paredes (.311, 36 Rs, 10 HRs, 38 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run.
Minnesota is a slight underdog (-103) and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. The Twins are 36-31 as the underdog and have an overall money line of +1,341. The Twins are the best in the AL in walks allowed, giving up just 2.5 per game.
Moving on to the opposing team, the Orioles come into this game with a win percentage of .591 when playing as the favorite (26-18) and an overall money line of +161. Baltimore is one of the top home-run-hitting teams in the league with 99 home runs.
This game will feature Chen (LHP) on the mound against the Twins, who have a 10-5 home and 18-10 overall record when they take on a left-handed starter. The right-handed Hughes will take the mound against the Orioles, who have a 32-31 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - BAL, O/U - Over
Minnesota has won 45% (13-16) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Baltimore has won 62% (20-12) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Orioles are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Twins have a 21-29 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Orioles are 32-8. The Twins have a 30-2 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 14th, Minnesota is in the top half of the league in runs, scoring 340 this season. Baltimore ranks in the top five at fifth with 370.
Minnesota and Baltimore both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Minnesota sits at 25th with 195 this season and Baltimore ranks 23rd with 205.
The Twins are 31-16 when they hit at least one home run. The Orioles perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 36-18 record.