Jacob deGrom (7-7, 2.96 ERA) and the New York Mets (69-64) go up against Jose Urena (2-5, 5.83 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (67-66) in the last of a four-game division series at Citi Field. The Marlins lost the last game 5-2, extending a five-game losing streak. New York can finish out the series sweep with a win in this game. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sep. 1 and will air on SNY and FSFL.
In his most recent outing, deGrom pitched 4.2 innings, giving up five runs, striking out three and walking two in an 8-1 loss to the Cardinals. Yoenis Cespedes (.298, 57 Rs, 27 HRs, 68 RBIs, 2 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 3 with one run. The Marlins were also unsuccessful the last time Urena pitched. He pitched well, going 5.2 innings, allowing one run, striking out six and walking two in a 1-0 loss to the Padres. Giancarlo Stanton (.244, 52 Rs, 25 HRs, 70 RBIs) has been hitting the ball well for the Marlins, going 3 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and three RBIs.
New York, a -179 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Miami. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is seven runs. The Mets are 49-39 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -977. Over the last 10 games, they have a very good record when playing as the favorite (4-1). New York has averaged 6.0 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 3.9. The Mets are a power hitting team with 178 home runs, one of the highest totals in the MLB. Turning to the pitching and defensive side, the New York pitching staff and defense has been very good, only giving up 3.9 runs per game. The Mets are the best in the NL in walks allowed, giving up just 2.7 per game.
On the other side, the Marlins have a record of 35-31 when they are the underdog and are -226 overall with the money line. Against teams in their division, they are 22-30 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 10-14 record. During the last 10 games, they averaged 2.4 runs per game, below their 4.1 season average. The last 10 games have really brought the best out of the Miami pitchers. They've allowed 2.8 runs per game during that span, which is lower than their season average of 4.1. They also average just 8.3 hits allowed per game, fourth-best in the NL.
The Mets have mostly come out on top against the Marlins in their previous 15 games this season, earning a 10-5 record. The Mets will take on a right-hander (Urena) in this game and have a 51-46 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Marlins will be the right-hander deGrom. They sport a 46-56 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner - NYM, O/U - Over
The Mets hold a 28-25 record this season against teams in the NL East Division. The Marlins' record in these matchups is 22-31.
New York has won 49% (25-26) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, Miami has won 49% (29-30) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Marlins managed to give up five walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Mets who are heading in with a 17-8 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Marlins are 9-42. The Mets have an 18-49 record when opponents outhit them.
Miami ranks near the bottom of the league at 28th when it comes to home runs, hitting 109 this season. New York ranks in the top five with 178.
Ranking 12th, New York is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.14 per game. Miami ranks in the top five at second with 9.30.
Ranking 22nd, New York is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.727). Miami ranks in the bottom half at 20th with an OPS of .730.
The Marlins are 29-41 when they allow at least one home run. The Mets perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 32-46 record.