Seth Lugo (1-2, 2.51 ERA) and Tom Koehler (9-9, 3.85 ERA) take the hill in the second of a four-game series between the New York Mets (67-64) and the Miami Marlins (67-64) at Citi Field. The Mets won the last game 2-1, and New York leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Aug. 30 and can be seen on SNY and FSFL.
Lugo pitched 5.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering zero runs, striking out five and walking three in a 10-6 win over the Cardinals. Yoenis Cespedes (.299, 56 Rs, 27 HRs, 68 RBIs, 2 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 3 for 5 with one run, one home run, and one RBI. Koehler went 6.0 innings, surrendering four runs (one unearned), striking out six and walking two in a 5-2 defeat to the Royals in his last outing. Giancarlo Stanton (.244, 52 Rs, 25 HRs, 70 RBIs) has been successful at the plate for the Marlins, going 3 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and three RBIs.
New York is a slim -115 favorite at home against Miami. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently eight runs. The Mets have an overall money line of -1,077 and a record as the favorite of 48-39. New York is an impressive 3-1 as the favorite over its last 10 games. The Mets have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 5.4 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 3.9 runs per game. Opposing batters know they're in for a battle when they play New York. The Mets are one of the top teams when it comes to pitching, allowing just 3.9 runs per game. The Mets are the top team in the NL at limiting walks to their opponents, allowing only 2.6 walks per game so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Miami has a 35-30 record and an overall money line of -126. They have managed to pull off a perfect record over their last ten games while playing as the underdog, and have a 5-5 SU record over the same span. Offensively, the Marlins have really sputtered in the last 10 games. They have decreased their season average of 4.1 runs per game by averaging 2.6 during that stretch. The Marlins allow 4.1 runs per game, but have improved upon those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 2.6 runs per game during that span. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Marlins are fourth in the NL with an average of 8.3 hits allowed per game.
The Mets lead the season series, 8-5. The Mets have a 50-46 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Koehler takes the mound. Lugo (RHP) will be on the hill against the Marlins, who have a 46-55 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - NYM, O/U - Over
The Mets are 26-25 against their divisional rivals, while the Marlins are 22-29 against their division.
When leading after seven innings, Miami is 29-29, while New York is 24-26.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Marlins are going to have to step it up if they want to win this matchup. The Mets have a 26-2 record in games where opponents scored one run or less.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 55-16. The Mets have a 46-11 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total runs this season, New York ranks 28th with 511 runs and Miami is 23rd with 542.
Ranking 21st, Miami is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 374 this season. New York ranks in the top half at 14th with 398.
When the Mets hit at least one home run, they are 58-34, well-matched with the Marlins who are 47-30 when hitting one or more homers.