MLB Regular Season
Matchup: San Diego Padres at New York Mets
Date/Time: July 29, 7:10 p.m. ET
Pitching Matchup: Tyson Ross (6-8, 3.45) vs. Bartolo Colon (9-9, 4.60)
MLB Betting Odds From BetDSI Sportsbook
Moneyline: New York Mets -120
Tyson Ross is scheduled to take the mound for the San Diego Padres on Wednesday night at Citi Field, but who knows where his next start could be. The Padres are expected to be very active over the next couple of days as they attempt to shed payroll prior to the MLB Trade Deadline. The New York Mets will send Bartolo Colon to the mound in an effort to get him turned around. The Mets are buyers at the trade deadline and they have added some pieces that should help in their quest for the postseason.
AJ Preller is burning up the phone lines looking for takers for some of the most interesting players on the trade market, including Ross. Ross has great value on the trade market, not just because he’s pitching well, but because the acquiring team would have control for two more seasons after this. Ross is a four-time arbitration-eligible player, hence the extra year of control. The Mets have already added Juan Uribe, Kelly Johnson, and Tyler Clippard and continue to search for additional ways to improve.
Players are a lot more discreet about it, but Tyson Ross probably wouldn’t mind getting out of San Diego. The 28-year-old has a 3.45 ERA with a 2.75 FIP and a 3.06 xFIP. His numbers could be even better, but a .340 BABIP against has come back to hurt him in some instances. His command has been excellent. His control has been a bit iffy, with a 10.9 percent walk rate, but you can’t fault a guy with a .340 BABIP against trying to strike every hitter out to keep the ball from being put in play.
Ross is steadily improving from a strikeout standpoint, up for the four straight season. One concern for teams possibly looking to acquire him is that injuries derailed some of his development early on and nobody has a heavier reliance on the slider than Ross. He is throwing nearly 45 percent sliders this season, which was the most in the league by 4.4 percent prior to Collin McHugh’s start on Tuesday night. As a full-time starter for the first time last season, Ross threw 195.2 high quality innings with a 2.81/3.24/3.11 pitcher slash.
Speaking of high usage, only Lance Lynn relies more on the fastball than Bartolo Colon. The league’s most exciting hitter, Colon has had some regression with his command this season. Colon’s strikeout and walk rates are both better than last season, but his home run per fly ball rate has climbed from 8.8 percent to 10.1 percent. That and some unfortunate sequencing, have elevated Colon’s ERA from last season’s 4.09 to this season’s 4.60. But, if you look at the advanced metrics, Colon’s FIP is 0.02 runs higher and his xFIP is 0.03 runs higher, so he’s basically pitching the same with less batted ball luck and less luck with runners on base.
Colon is in the final year of a two-year deal with the Mets and they are unlikely to sign him with all of their starting pitching depth. He’s still getting it done at the age of 42. The right-handed heavy Padres would seem to be a good matchup for Colon, who has held righties to a .247/.281/.428 slash this season. Lefties are batting .299/.321/.454. One of the big problems for the Padres this season has been their performance against right-handed pitching because of their lack of balance. Will it play a role on Wednesday?
MLB Prediction: San Diego Padres
It probably will, but Tyson Ross is good enough to get the Padres a win in this one. Of course, a lot depends on who the Padres trade prior to this game and whether or not they are in the right mindset to play. The only team with less success against sliders this season is the Chicago Cubs, as of Tuesday afternoon, so the Mets have certainly had their share of offensive problems against guys with good sliders like Ross.