Madison Bumgarner (12-8, 2.44 ERA) is on the hill for the San Francisco Giants (70-59) as they square off against Aaron Blair (0-5, 7.99 ERA) and the Atlanta Braves (48-82) in the last of a three-game series at AT&T Park. The Braves won the last game 3-1, and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 28 and can be seen on CSBA and FSSO.
Bumgarner pitched 5.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering five runs, striking out seven and walking one in a 9-5 defeat to the Dodgers. Brandon Crawford (.274, 55 Rs, 12 HRs, 75 RBIs, 4 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one home run, and one RBI. Blair went 4.1 innings, surrendering eight runs, striking out two and walking three in an 8-6 defeat to the Mets in his last outing. Freddie Freeman (.290, 77 Rs, 26 HRs, 62 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run.
This one isn't expected to be close when San Francisco, a big -310 favorite, takes on Atlanta. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of seven runs. Though the Giants have had a tough season in terms of their overall money line (-297), they have done fairly well as a favorite with a record of 51-32. San Francisco is one of the best in the NL in terms of walks, earning an average of 3.6 per game. As for the San Francisco defense and pitching staff, it's been a struggle for opposing teams to score runs against the Giants. The 4.0 runs that San Francisco's pitchers allow per game makes them the fifth-ranked staff in the NL. The Giants are the fourth-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.228 so far this season.
As for their opponent, Atlanta is coming in with an overall money line of -996 and a disappointing record of 44-71 as the underdog. Offensively, the Braves have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 3.7 runs per game by averaging 5.4 during that stretch. Atlanta is excellent at not striking out on the road with just 7.6 per game, ranking second in the NL. The Braves allow 4.9 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 7.3 runs per game during that span.
The Giants have a 46-42 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Blair takes the mound. Bumgarner (LHP) will be on the hill against the Braves, who have a inferior 14-27 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - SF, O/U - Over
Atlanta has won 34% (16-31) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, San Francisco has won 54% (25-21) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Braves are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Giants have a 7-11 record when opponents give up one walk or less.
When they outhit their opponents, the Braves are 36-19. The Giants have a 51-14 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 30th in runs, Atlanta has earned 481 this season. San Francisco ranks 18th with 573 runs.
Ranking 13th, Atlanta is in the top half of the league in walks, notching 395 this season. San Francisco ranks in the top five at fourth with 465.
When the Giants hit at least one home run, they are 46-28. When the Braves hit at least one homer, they have a 27-32 record.