In a game that has the potential for a lot of runs, Dallas Keuchel (7-12, 4.76 ERA) and the Houston Astros (63-60) are in Baltimore to square off against Yovani Gallardo (4-4, 5.18 ERA) and the Orioles (67-55). This is the last of a four-game series at Camden Yards. The Astros won the last game 12-2, and Houston leads the series 2-1. Action begins at 1:35 p.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 21 and can be seen on RTSW and MAS2.
Gallardo pitched 5.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering three runs, striking out two and walking five in a 5-3 defeat to the Red Sox. Manny Machado (.303, 84 Rs, 28 HRs, 74 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. Keuchel went 5.0 innings, surrendering six runs, striking out seven and walking one in an 8-5 defeat to the Cardinals in his most recent start. Jose Altuve (.366, 89 Rs, 20 HRs, 81 RBIs, 26 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Astros, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run and one RBI.
Houston takes on Baltimore as a -121 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at nine runs. Though the Orioles have had a solid season in terms of their overall money line (+1,166), they've have done poorly as an underdog with a record of 22-33. Baltimore has recorded a disappointing 1-4 record as the underdog over its last 10 games. The Orioles have no trouble scoring as they rank fourth in the AL in home offense with 5.1 runs per game. The Orioles are one of the best in the AL in terms of hits with an impressive 9.0 per game. Baltimore's pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 5.7 runs per game, well above its season average of 4.5.
In games where it is the favorite, Houston has a 45-43 record and an overall money line of -1,248. Offensively, the Astros have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.5 runs per game by averaging 6.8 during that stretch. The Astros have a dynamic offense, ranking fifth in the league with 406 extra base hits. Houston is excellent at drawing walks with 3.5 per game, ranking second in the AL. The Astros allow 4.2 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 6.7 runs per game during that span. The Astros have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an AL-best 8.7 strikeouts per game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Astros have controlled the season series, 5-1. The Orioles have a 17-17 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Keuchel takes the mound. Gallardo (RHP) will be on the hill against the Astros, who have a 43-39 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - HOU, O/U - Over
The Astros won their last game by a 10-run margin. In games decided by a margin of 10 runs or more, the Orioles are 0-3. The Astros are 4-4 in blowouts this season.
The Orioles managed to give up 10 walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Astros who are coming in with a 2-0 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
It looks like the Astros have a slight leg up on the Orioles, as the Astros have won their last two games while the Orioles have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Orioles are 45-9. The Astros have a 49-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 11th, Houston sits in the top half of the league in runs, scoring 564 this season. Baltimore ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 576.
Ranking 23rd, Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 349 this season. Houston ranks in the top five with 442.
When the Orioles hit at least one home run, they are 55-35, well-matched with the Astros who are 54-35 when hitting one or more homers.